⚽ Over 1.5 Goals

Today's Over 1.5 Picks

Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.

📊 Poisson Modelled 🔓 Free Forever

👑 Best Pick ✅ AI Analysed

Cameroon · Elite One 14:00

Fortuna Mfou

14:00

Jun 7

PWD Bamenda

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

97%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

97%

Over 2.5

89%

BTTS

54%

AI Analysis

Fortuna Mfou is in poor form with 3 losses in the last 5 matches, while PWD Bamenda has a strong attacking threat. PWD Bamenda's high scoring rate and Fortuna Mfou's defensive weakness make for a potentially high scoring match. The pi-ratings also favor PWD Bamenda. With PWD Bame...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 1.5 Goals is rated at 96.9% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

PWD Bamenda strong form

Recent form leans to PWD Bamenda: 2 points versus 9 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.20 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away Win

Over 1.5 Goals probability

96.9%

Chance of 2+ total goals

Fortuna Mfou high-scoring games

60%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

PWD Bamenda high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Fortuna Mfou

L D D L L

Form 0-2-3 Goals 1:15 Scored/game 0.2 Conceded/game 3

PWD Bamenda

W W W L L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 15:11 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 2.2

📊 Poisson model: 97% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #2 ✅ AI Analysed

Kenya · Super League 13:00

Kabati Youth FC

13:00

Jun 7

Naivas

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

90%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

90%

Over 2.5

81%

BTTS

25%

AI Analysis

Kabati Youth FC struggles to score, while Naivas has a strong defense. Naivas' recent form shows a high scoring rate. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Naivas. With Naivas' strong attacking threat, defensive strength, and Kabati Youth FC's scoring struggles,...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 1.5 Goals is rated at 89.5% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

Form gap

Recent form leans to Naivas: 2 points versus 10 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away Win

Over 1.5 Goals probability

89.5%

Chance of 2+ total goals

Kabati Youth FC high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Naivas high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Kabati Youth FC

L L D D

Form 0-2-2 Goals 3:7 Scored/game 0.75 Conceded/game 1.75

Naivas

W W D W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 8:0 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0

📊 Poisson model: 90% chance of 2+ goals

How Over 1.5 Picks Work

Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.

82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.

5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.