⚽ Over 1.5 Goals
Today's Over 1.5 Picks
Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.
👑 Best Pick
✅ AI Analysed
UEFA Champions League
FT 2–2
Celje
2:2
FT
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a history of high-scoring matches. With both teams scoring in their last meeting, the attacking threat is significant. Defensive strength is a concern for both teams, with neither keeping a clean sheet in their last match. Key players will be cru...
⚽ Pick #2
✅ AI Analysed
UEFA Europa Conference League
FT 5–2
Riga
5:2
FT
Vardar Skopje
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Riga and Vardar Skopje have a high scoring history with 95% chance of over 1.5 goals. Riga's home form is strong with 3 goals scored per game. Vardar Skopje's away form is also decent with 3 goals scored in their last away game. The head-to-head history also suggests a high scori...
⚽ Pick #3
✅ AI Analysed
UEFA Europa Conference League
FT 2–1
Drita
2:1
FT
Floriana
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Drita and Floriana have a recent history of drawing, with their last match ending 1-1. Drita's home form is decent, with 2 goals scored in their last home match. Floriana's away form is a concern, with 5 goals conceded in their last away match. With both teams scoring in their re...
⚽ Pick #4
✅ AI Analysed
UEFA Champions League
FT 2–1
Shamrock Rovers
2:1
FT
Ararat-Armenia
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Shamrock Rovers are in poor form, losing 2 of their last 3 matches. Ararat-Armenia have a strong attacking threat, with a high xG. The absence of John McGovern will weaken Shamrock Rovers. The H2H significance is high, with Ararat-Armenia winning the previous match 2-0. 💡 Tip: A...
⚽ Pick #5
✅ AI Analysed
UEFA Champions League
FT 0–0
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0:0
FT
Mjallby AIF
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
❌ Lost
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Mjallby AIF has a significant form gap over Lincoln Red Imps FC. Mjallby's attacking threat is high, with a strong recent performance. Lincoln Red Imps FC's defensive strength is a concern, having conceded 3 goals in the last match against Mjallby. The H2H significance is also in...
How Over 1.5 Picks Work
1
Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.
2
82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.
3
5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.
🔞 18+ only.
Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.