🔥 Over 2.5 Goals

Today's Over 2.5 Picks

Matches where our model gives 65% or higher probability of 3 or more total goals, well above the average. Gemini cross-checks every pick. Five selected daily.

📊 Poisson + AI 🔓 Free Forever

👑 Best Pick ✅ AI + Gemini Verified

Italy · Serie B 19:00

Monza

19:00

May 29

Catanzaro

Our prediction

🔥 Over 2.5 Goals: YES

Probability

96%

Goals breakdown

Over 1.5

99%

Over 2.5

96%

BTTS

92%

AI Analysis

Monza's recent form and home advantage give them an edge. With Patrick Cutrone joining on loan, Monza's attacking threat increases. Catanzaro's poor away form and Monza's high BTTS rate suggest goals. Monza's pi-rating and expected goals also support a strong home performance. 💡...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 91.6% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

High scoring rate

Recent form leans to Monza: 8 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS probability

91.6%

Both teams to score

Monza BTTS

66.7%

Across recent matches

Catanzaro BTTS

33.3%

Across recent matches

Bookmaker implied chance

43%

Market does not fully agree

Monza

W W D D L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Catanzaro

L L W W L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 1

Monza 1wins ·0 draws ·Catanzaro 0wins

Monza 2-0 CatanzaroMay 24, 2026

📊 Poisson model: 96% chance of 3+ total goals

🔥 Pick #2 ✅ AI + Gemini Verified

Sudan · Sudani Premier League 14:45

Al-Merreikh II

14:45

May 29

Al Fallah

Our prediction

🔥 Over 2.5 Goals: YES

Probability

78%

Goals breakdown

Over 1.5

92%

Over 2.5

78%

BTTS

26%

AI Analysis

Al-Merreikh II's strong form and Al Fallah's poor recent results create a significant gap. Al-Merreikh II's attacking threat is high with an xG of 3.833. Al Fallah's defensive struggles and failure to score in recent matches make a home win likely. Al-Merreikh II's clean sheet pe...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 77.9% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

Form gap

Recent form leans to Al-Merreikh II: 7 points versus 1 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home Win

Over 2.5 Goals probability

77.9%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Al-Merreikh II high-scoring games

33.3%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Al Fallah high-scoring games

33.3%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Al-Merreikh II

W D W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 5:1 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.33

Al Fallah

L D L

Form 0-1-2 Goals 0:6 Scored/game 0 Conceded/game 2

📊 Poisson model: 78% chance of 3+ total goals

How Over 2.5 Picks Work

Poisson modelling from expected goals: attack strength, defence weakness, home advantage and H2H history combine to estimate xG for each team.

65% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives a genuine edge over the 53% base rate make the cut. Gemini must not disagree.

5 picks at 08:00 Lagos time, ranked by probability, highest first. Full results on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 2.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. Please gamble responsibly. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.