USA · Major League Soccer

FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes

Full time · 3:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

FC Dallas 54.8% Draw 22.9% San Jose Earthquakes 22.3%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 67%

✓ Pick was correct (3:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FC Dallas: 14 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

FC Dallas

D W W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

San Jose Earthquakes

D D D W W W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 1

FC Dallas 1wins ·0 draws ·San Jose Earthquakes 0wins

FC Dallas 3-2 San Jose EarthquakesMay 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Dallas win54.8%

Draw22.9%

San Jose Earthquakes win22.3%

Over 1.5 goals87.5%

Over 2.5 goals67.8%

Over 3.5 goals46.2%

Both teams to score66.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.1%

Home Team to Score

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.4%

Home or Draw (1X)76.5%

Draw No Bet - Home70.4%

Both Halves Over 0.567.7%

Goal in Both Halves67.7%

Home Win55.9%

Draw or Away (X2)44.1%

Draw No Bet - Away29.6%

Away Win23.5%

Draw20.6%

Exactly 1 Goal10.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.3%

Under 5.5 Goals85.8%

Under 4.5 Goals72.6%

Over 2.5 Goals67.8%

2-4 Goals59.0%

Under 3.5 Goals53.8%

1-3 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.2%

4+ Goals46.2%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.1%

Under 2.5 Goals32.2%

1-2 Goals29.1%

Over 4.5 Goals27.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.5%

Over 5.5 Goals14.2%

Under 1.5 Goals13.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.3%

Away Team to Score73.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.7%

Home Clean Sheet26.1%

Home Win to Nil23.0%

Away Clean Sheet11.6%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.3%

Away Over 0.573.9%

Home Over 1.563.3%

Away Over 1.538.9%

Home Over 2.536.4%

Home 3+ Goals36.4%

Away Exactly 135.0%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 026.1%

Home Exactly 125.0%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Away Over 2.515.3%

Away 3+ Goals15.3%

Home Exactly 011.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 121.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.3%

Home to win by 3+17.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 216.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 113.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 26.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.5%

Home & Over 2.542.3%

Home & BTTS32.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.4%

Home & No BTTS23.0%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Away & Over 2.516.7%

Away & BTTS14.9%

Home & Under 2.513.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

Away & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.3%

HT Under 1.553.3%

HT Over 1.546.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

HT Home Win43.0%

HT/FT Home/Home36.0%

HT Draw34.8%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score28.2%

HT Away Win22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half22.0%

HT Under 0.520.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.2%

HT/FT Away/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners69.7%

Over 8.5 Corners66.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners61.6%

Under 10.5 Corners58.3%

Over 9.5 Corners54.2%

Away Most Corners52.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Under 9.5 Corners45.8%

Over 10.5 Corners41.7%

Home Most Corners35.5%

Under 8.5 Corners33.3%

Over 11.5 Corners30.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.6%

Under 5.5 Cards70.3%

Over 3.5 Cards65.8%

Under 4.5 Cards53.2%

Over 4.5 Cards46.8%

Under 3.5 Cards34.2%

Over 5.5 Cards29.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.0%

Under 2.5 Cards17.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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