Mexico · Liga MX

Leon vs Toluca

Kick-off 00:00 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Leon 40.1% Draw 23.1% Toluca 36.8%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leon: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Leon

W L D W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Toluca

L D L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leon win40.1%

Draw23.1%

Toluca win36.8%

Over 1.5 goals90.8%

Over 2.5 goals74.1%

Over 3.5 goals53.9%

Both teams to score74.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.1%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.572.6%

Goal in Both Halves72.6%

Home or Draw (1X)62.2%

Draw or Away (X2)58.8%

Draw No Bet - Home52.1%

Draw No Bet - Away47.9%

Home Win41.1%

Away Win37.8%

Draw21.1%

Exactly 1 Goal8.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals89.7%

Under 5.5 Goals80.7%

Over 2.5 Goals74.1%

Under 4.5 Goals65.6%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals53.9%

4+ Goals53.9%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals46.1%

1-3 Goals44.0%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals35.9%

Over 4.5 Goals34.4%

Under 2.5 Goals25.9%

1-2 Goals23.8%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.3%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals10.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.1%

Away Team to Score84.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.0%

Home Clean Sheet15.1%

Away Clean Sheet13.9%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Win to Nil11.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.1%

Away Over 0.584.8%

Home Over 1.558.7%

Away Over 1.556.3%

Home Over 2.531.6%

Home 3+ Goals31.6%

Away Over 2.529.3%

Away 3+ Goals29.3%

Away Exactly 128.6%

Home Exactly 127.4%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 015.1%

Home Exactly 013.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away58.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.2%

Away to win by 211.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.4%

Home to win by 3+10.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.9%

Away to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.2%

Home & Over 2.532.9%

Away & Over 2.530.0%

Home & BTTS28.1%

Away & BTTS26.0%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.1%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

Away & No BTTS11.8%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

Draw & Under 2.59.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Home & Under 2.58.2%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Away & Under 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.4%

HT Over 1.551.8%

HT Under 1.548.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.2%

HT Home Win34.3%

HT Both Teams Score33.7%

HT Draw33.6%

HT Away Win32.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Home/Home25.5%

HT/FT Away/Away23.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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