⚽ Over 1.5 Goals

Today's Over 1.5 Picks

Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.

📊 Poisson Modelled 🔓 Free Forever

⚽ Pick #2 ✅ AI Analysed

Portugal · Primeira Liga FT 1–0

FC Porto

Santa Clara

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

❌ Lost

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

92%

Over 2.5

80%

BTTS

65%

AI Analysis

Santa Clara's recent form and scoring rate give them an edge. FC Porto's injuries to key players like Brayan Caicedo and Rodrigo Mora weaken their attack. With Luis Fernando starting for Santa Clara, their attacking threat is significant. FC Porto's defense, however, has been inc...

📊 Poisson model: 92% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #3 ✅ AI Analysed

Saudi-Arabia · Pro League FT 3–1

Al Okhdood

Al Khaleej Saihat

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

✅ Won

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

83%

Over 2.5

64%

BTTS

54%

AI Analysis

Al Okhdood's poor form and Al Khaleej Saihat's strong away record create a significant gap. Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking threat is higher, but Al Okhdood's defensive strength is a concern. The lack of H2H data makes this match harder to predict. With Al Khaleej Saihat's recent w...

📊 Poisson model: 83% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #5 ✅ AI Analysed

Morocco · Cup FT 3–2

Hassania Agadir

Mostakbal El Marsa

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

✅ Won

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

95%

Over 2.5

82%

BTTS

77%

AI Analysis

Hassania Agadir's recent form shows a significant gap in defense, conceding 2.5 goals per game. Mostakbal El Marsa, although lacking historical data, is favored to win. The absence of key player data for both teams makes it challenging to pinpoint specific threats, but the overal...

📊 Poisson model: 95% chance of 2+ goals

How Over 1.5 Picks Work

Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.

82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.

5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.