⚽ Over 1.5 Goals

Today's Over 1.5 Picks

Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.

📊 Poisson Modelled 🔓 Free Forever

75%

7-Day Over 1.5 Accuracy 12/16 picks landed

👑 Best Pick ✅ AI Analysed

Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara 14:00

Fountain Gate

14:00

Jun 12

Azam

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

96%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

96%

Over 2.5

85%

BTTS

73%

AI Analysis

Fountain Gate and Azam have different forms, with Azam being the stronger team. Azam's attacking threat is high, with an average of 2 goals scored per game. Fountain Gate's defensive strength is a concern, having conceded an average of 1.67 goals per game. The key player impact i...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 73.2% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

Strong form

Recent form leans to Azam: 10 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away Win

BTTS probability

73.2%

Both teams to score

Fountain Gate BTTS

83.3%

Across recent matches

Azam BTTS

16.7%

Across recent matches

Fountain Gate

W D L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Azam

W W W L W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

📊 Poisson model: 96% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #2 ✅ AI Analysed

Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara 18:00

KMC

18:00

Jun 12

Tabora United

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

93%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

93%

Over 2.5

80%

BTTS

55%

AI Analysis

KMC is in poor form, losing 6 of their last 6 matches, while Tabora United has a strong record with 3 wins in their last 6. Tabora United's attacking threat, led by their high xG value, poses a significant challenge to KMC's defense. The home team's struggles to score, with only...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 79.8% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

Tabora United form

Recent form leans to Tabora United: 0 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away Win

Over 2.5 Goals probability

79.8%

Chance of 3+ total goals

KMC high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Tabora United high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

KMC

L L L L L L

Form 0-0-6 Goals 5:13 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.17

Tabora United

L W D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

📊 Poisson model: 93% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #3 ✅ AI Analysed

Morocco · Botola Pro 16:00

Olympique Safi

16:00

Jun 12

Kawkab Marrakech

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

92%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

92%

Over 2.5

77%

BTTS

76%

AI Analysis

Olympique Safi and Kawkab Marrakech have high scoring rates, with both teams scoring in 83% and 83% of their matches respectively. Kawkab Marrakech has a strong attacking threat, scoring 1.83 goals per game. Olympique Safi's defense has been leaky, conceding 1.17 goals per game....

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 75.9% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

High scoring rates

Recent form leans to Kawkab Marrakech: 6 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS probability

75.9%

Both teams to score

Olympique Safi BTTS

83.3%

Across recent matches

Kawkab Marrakech BTTS

83.3%

Across recent matches

Olympique Safi

D W D D L L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Kawkab Marrakech

W W L L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📊 Poisson model: 92% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #4 ✅ AI Analysed

Morocco · Botola Pro 18:00

Difaa EL Jadida

18:00

Jun 12

Olympique Dcheïra

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

86%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

86%

Over 2.5

68%

BTTS

38%

AI Analysis

Difaa EL Jadida's strong home form and Olympique Dcheïra's poor away record suggest a home win. With a significant form gap, Difaa EL Jadida's attacking threat is likely to overpower Olympique Dcheïra's defense. The home team's defensive strength also increases the likelihood of...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 68.2% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

Form gap

Recent form leans to Difaa EL Jadida: 9 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home Win

Over 2.5 Goals probability

68.2%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Difaa EL Jadida high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Olympique Dcheïra high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Difaa EL Jadida

D W D D L W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Olympique Dcheïra

L L D D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

📊 Poisson model: 86% chance of 2+ goals

How Over 1.5 Picks Work

Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.

82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.

5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.