⚽ Over 1.5 Goals
Today's Over 1.5 Picks
Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.
77.3%
7-Day Over 1.5 Accuracy
17/22 picks landed
👑 Best Pick
✅ AI Analysed
Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara
FT 4–3
Fountain Gate
4:3
FT
Singida Black Stars
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Fountain Gate and Singida Black Stars have a high scoring record, with both teams to score in most of their matches. Singida Black Stars have a strong attacking threat, while Fountain Gate have a leaky defense. The away team's recent form is impressive, with key players like Mira...
Fountain Gate
Singida Black Stars
⚽ Pick #2
✅ AI Analysed
Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara
FT 1–0
Simba
1:0
FT
KMC
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
❌ Lost
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Simba's strong form and KMC's poor form create a large gap. Simba's attacking threat is high with a 2.17 goal average. KMC's defensive issues are evident with 2.17 goals conceded per game. No key player injuries are reported for Simba. 💡 Tip: Simba will likely win with a clean s...
Simba
⚽ Pick #3
✅ AI Analysed
Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara
FT 0–3
JKT Tanzania
0:3
FT
Young Africans
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Young Africans have a strong attacking threat with 2.33 goals scored per game. JKT Tanzania have a decent home record with 1.3 goals scored per game. The pi-ratings suggest JKT Tanzania are slightly stronger at home. Considering the high expected goals and BTTS rate, the match is...
JKT Tanzania
Young Africans
⚽ Pick #4
✅ AI Analysed
Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara
FT 2–1
Coastal Union
2:1
FT
Pamba Jiji
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Coastal Union has a stronger pi-rating and home advantage. Pamba Jiji has struggled to score. Coastal Union's recent form shows promise. The match context suggests a high-scoring game. 💡 Tip: Over 1.5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the teams' scoring rates.
Coastal Union
Pamba Jiji
⚽ Pick #5
✅ AI Analysed
Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara
FT 0–0
Mbeya City
0:0
FT
Tabora United
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
❌ Lost
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Tabora United's strong form and high scoring rate make them favorites. Mbeya City's struggles to score at home are a concern. With Tabora United's attacking threat, led by their key players, they are likely to score. Mbeya City's defense may struggle to contain them. 💡 Tip: Tabo...
Mbeya City
Tabora United
How Over 1.5 Picks Work
1
Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.
2
82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.
3
5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.
🔞 18+ only.
Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.