Germany · 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel

Kick-off 12:30 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

1. FC Heidenheim 68.1% Draw 12.9% Holstein Kiel 19.0%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

92%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to 1. FC Heidenheim: 10 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

1. FC Heidenheim

L W L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:13 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Holstein Kiel

L D D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 2

1. FC Heidenheim 1wins ·0 draws ·Holstein Kiel 1wins

1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein KielMar 16, 2025

1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 Holstein KielNov 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

1. FC Heidenheim win68.1%

Draw12.9%

Holstein Kiel win19.0%

Over 1.5 goals99.5%

Over 2.5 goals97.2%

Over 3.5 goals92.2%

Both teams to score91.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.2%

Goal in Both Halves87.2%

Home or Away (12)84.2%

Home or Draw (1X)78.4%

Draw No Bet - Home75.5%

Home Win63.6%

Draw or Away (X2)35.5%

Draw No Bet - Away24.5%

Away Win20.6%

Draw14.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals96.4%

Over 2.5 Goals90.3%

Over 3.5 Goals79.1%

4+ Goals79.1%

Over 4.5 Goals63.6%

Under 5.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals46.4%

Under 4.5 Goals36.4%

2-4 Goals32.9%

3-4 Goals26.8%

Under 3.5 Goals20.9%

1-3 Goals19.6%

2-3 Goals17.4%

Exactly 3 Goals11.3%

Under 2.5 Goals9.7%

1-2 Goals8.3%

Exactly 2 Goals6.1%

Under 1.5 Goals3.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score86.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.3%

Home Clean Sheet12.6%

Home Win to Nil12.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 0.586.5%

Home Over 1.584.9%

Home Over 2.566.1%

Home 3+ Goals66.1%

Away Over 1.560.6%

Away Over 2.533.8%

Away 3+ Goals33.8%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 125.9%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 012.6%

Home Exactly 110.9%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.8%

Home to win by 3+29.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.4%

Away to win by 110.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 25.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.9%

Home & Over 2.559.8%

Home & BTTS51.4%

Away & Over 2.519.0%

Away & BTTS17.9%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

Home & No BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Home & Under 2.53.8%

Draw & Under 2.53.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Over 1.570.9%

HT Home Win51.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.6%

HT Both Teams Score47.7%

HT/FT Home/Home44.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.1%

HT Draw25.5%

HT Away Win22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Away/Away12.3%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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