Germany · Bundesliga

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

Full time · 1:2

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

1. FC Köln 24.9% Draw 23.5% Bayer Leverkusen 51.6%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 93%

✓ Pick was correct (1:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Bayer Leverkusen: 6 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

1. FC Köln

D D L W L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Bayer Leverkusen

L L W W W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

1. FC Köln 1wins ·0 draws ·Bayer Leverkusen 4wins

1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenApr 25, 2026

1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenDec 13, 2025

1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenMar 3, 2024

1. FC Köln 0-3 Bayer LeverkusenOct 8, 2023

1. FC Köln 2-1 Bayer LeverkusenMay 5, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

1. FC Köln win24.9%

Draw23.5%

Bayer Leverkusen win51.6%

Over 1.5 goals83.3%

Over 2.5 goals96.6%

Over 3.5 goals39.5%

Both teams to score93.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.3%

Goal in Both Halves86.3%

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Draw or Away (X2)59.9%

Home or Draw (1X)57.4%

Draw No Bet - Away51.5%

Draw No Bet - Home48.5%

Away Win42.2%

Home Win39.8%

Draw17.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.2%

Over 1.5 Goals96.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.0%

Over 3.5 Goals78.0%

4+ Goals78.0%

Over 4.5 Goals61.8%

Under 5.5 Goals55.5%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals44.5%

Under 4.5 Goals38.2%

2-4 Goals34.8%

3-4 Goals28.1%

Under 3.5 Goals22.0%

1-3 Goals21.2%

2-3 Goals18.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.0%

Under 2.5 Goals10.0%

1-2 Goals9.2%

Exactly 2 Goals6.7%

Under 1.5 Goals3.3%

Under 0.5 Goals0.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.1%

Home Team to Score92.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.5%

Away Clean Sheet7.1%

Home Clean Sheet6.6%

Away Win to Nil6.6%

Home Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.1%

Home Over 0.592.6%

Away Over 1.575.2%

Home Over 1.573.9%

Away Over 2.550.9%

Away 3+ Goals50.9%

Home Over 2.549.1%

Home 3+ Goals49.1%

Home Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 118.7%

Away Exactly 117.9%

Home Exactly 07.1%

Away Exactly 06.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away26.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 115.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.0%

Away to win by 3+14.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.6%

Home to win by 3+12.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 212.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.4%

Home to win by 211.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.1%

Away & Over 2.539.2%

Home & Over 2.536.9%

Away & BTTS35.6%

Home & BTTS33.7%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Draw & Over 2.513.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.8%

Away & No BTTS6.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Home & No BTTS6.1%

Draw & Under 2.53.8%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & Under 2.53.0%

Home & Under 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.1%

HT Over 1.569.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.3%

HT Both Teams Score49.2%

HT Away Win37.0%

HT Home Win35.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.5%

HT Draw27.5%

HT/FT Away/Away27.1%

HT/FT Home/Home25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.1%

HT Under 0.58.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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