Germany · Bundesliga

1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

1. FC Köln 45.6% Draw 25.8% Werder Bremen 28.7%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Head-to-head record: 1. FC Köln 1 wins, 2 draws, Werder Bremen 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

1. FC Köln

L W L L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:18 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 3

Werder Bremen

W L L L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

1. FC Köln 1wins ·2 draws ·Werder Bremen 2wins

1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder BremenApr 12, 2026

1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenNov 29, 2025

1. FC Köln 0-1 Werder BremenFeb 16, 2024

1. FC Köln 1-2 Werder BremenSep 23, 2023

1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenMay 20, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

1. FC Köln win45.6%

Draw25.8%

Werder Bremen win28.7%

Over 1.5 goals79.8%

Over 2.5 goals95.5%

Over 3.5 goals33.6%

Both teams to score88.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.4%

Goal in Both Halves86.4%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Home or Draw (1X)81.6%

Draw No Bet - Home79.5%

Home Win67.5%

Draw or Away (X2)31.5%

Draw No Bet - Away20.5%

Away Win17.4%

Draw14.1%

Exactly 1 Goal2.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals96.0%

Over 2.5 Goals89.4%

Over 3.5 Goals77.4%

4+ Goals77.4%

Over 4.5 Goals61.3%

Under 5.5 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals44.0%

Under 4.5 Goals38.7%

2-4 Goals34.7%

3-4 Goals28.1%

Under 3.5 Goals22.6%

1-3 Goals21.1%

2-3 Goals18.6%

Exactly 3 Goals12.0%

Under 2.5 Goals10.6%

1-2 Goals9.2%

Exactly 2 Goals6.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score83.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.7%

Home Clean Sheet15.2%

Home Win to Nil14.7%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.4%

Away Over 0.583.8%

Home Over 2.567.0%

Home 3+ Goals67.0%

Away Over 1.555.3%

Away Over 2.528.7%

Away 3+ Goals28.7%

Away Exactly 128.5%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 218.5%

Away Exactly 015.2%

Home Exactly 110.5%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away79.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.2%

Home to win by 3+33.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 217.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 19.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.3%

Away to win by 3+3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.2%

Home & Over 2.563.1%

Home & BTTS52.8%

Away & Over 2.515.7%

Away & BTTS14.8%

Home & No BTTS14.7%

Draw & BTTS13.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Home & Under 2.54.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.1%

HT Over 1.569.6%

HT Home Win54.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.3%

HT/FT Home/Home48.2%

HT Both Teams Score45.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.4%

HT Draw25.3%

HT Away Win20.1%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT/FT Away/Away10.2%

HT Under 0.58.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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