Germany · 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

Kick-off 19:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

87% confidence

1. FC Nürnberg 87.3% Draw 7.7% Arminia Bielefeld 5.0%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to 1. FC Nürnberg: 11 points versus 8 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.80 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

1. FC Nürnberg

W W D W D

Form 3-2-0 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.8 Conceded/game 1.2

Arminia Bielefeld

W L W L D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

1. FC Nürnberg win87.3%

Draw7.7%

Arminia Bielefeld win5.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.0%

Over 2.5 goals92.3%

Over 3.5 goals81.9%

Both teams to score71.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home94.4%

Home or Draw (1X)91.0%

Home or Away (12)89.0%

Both Halves Over 0.588.6%

Goal in Both Halves88.6%

Home Win84.1%

Draw or Away (X2)11.9%

Draw6.9%

Draw No Bet - Away5.6%

Away Win5.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.8%

Over 2.5 Goals88.6%

Over 3.5 Goals78.6%

4+ Goals78.6%

Over 4.5 Goals64.1%

Under 5.5 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals47.5%

Under 4.5 Goals35.9%

2-4 Goals29.7%

3-4 Goals24.5%

Under 3.5 Goals21.4%

1-3 Goals17.1%

2-3 Goals15.3%

Under 2.5 Goals11.4%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.2%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score68.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.0%

Home Clean Sheet27.2%

Home Win to Nil26.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.568.8%

Away Over 1.534.4%

Away Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 027.2%

Away Exactly 221.6%

Away Over 2.512.8%

Away 3+ Goals12.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)83.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)72.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home72.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away71.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)56.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home56.8%

Home to win by 3+56.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)56.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away56.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)39.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away39.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)24.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home24.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away23.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.7%

Home to win by 111.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 13.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.2%

Away to win by 21.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.579.4%

BTTS & Over 2.566.2%

Home & BTTS57.1%

Home & No BTTS26.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.4%

Draw & BTTS6.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

Away & Over 2.54.3%

Away & BTTS4.2%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.1%

HT Home Win71.8%

HT/FT Home/Home69.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.9%

HT Both Teams Score37.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.9%

HT Draw18.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win9.3%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Away/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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