UEFA Europa Conference League

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Aarhus 18.6% Draw 13.0% Egnatia Rrogozhinë 68.4%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Egnatia Rrogozhinë win at 68.4%.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Aarhus win

18.6%

1X2 model probability

Draw

13%

1X2 model probability

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win

68.4%

1X2 model probability

Aarhus

L L L W W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:15 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.5

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

D D W L D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aarhus win18.6%

Draw13.0%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win68.4%

Over 1.5 goals99.3%

Over 2.5 goals96.7%

Over 3.5 goals91.0%

Both teams to score91.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

92.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.593.4%

Goal in Both Halves93.4%

Home or Away (12)84.1%

Draw No Bet - Away78.5%

Draw or Away (X2)78.3%

Away Win66.0%

Home or Draw (1X)30.4%

Draw No Bet - Home21.5%

Home Win18.1%

Draw12.3%

Exactly 1 Goal0.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Over 1.5 Goals95.6%

Over 2.5 Goals93.2%

Over 3.5 Goals87.7%

4+ Goals87.7%

Over 4.5 Goals78.2%

Over 5.5 Goals65.1%

Total Goals Odd48.2%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Under 5.5 Goals34.9%

Under 4.5 Goals21.8%

2-4 Goals17.4%

3-4 Goals15.0%

Under 3.5 Goals12.3%

1-3 Goals8.6%

2-3 Goals7.9%

Under 2.5 Goals6.8%

Exactly 3 Goals5.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

1-2 Goals3.1%

Exactly 2 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score88.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.4%

Away Clean Sheet7.7%

Away Win to Nil7.6%

Home Clean Sheet1.3%

Home Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Away Over 1.589.6%

Home Over 0.588.7%

Away Over 2.577.6%

Away 3+ Goals77.6%

Home Over 1.569.3%

Home Over 2.544.7%

Home 3+ Goals44.7%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 119.5%

Away Exactly 212.0%

Home Exactly 07.7%

Away Exactly 15.5%

Away Exactly 01.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home84.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home74.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)66.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home60.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)51.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away51.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home45.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away35.8%

Away to win by 3+35.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away22.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 215.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 114.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw10.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.6%

Home to win by 18.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.1%

Home to win by 25.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.4%

Home to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.586.5%

Away & Over 2.564.6%

Away & BTTS58.4%

Home & Over 2.517.5%

Home & BTTS16.9%

Draw & BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

Away & No BTTS7.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Draw & Under 2.51.2%

Home & No BTTS1.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.1%

Home & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.5%

HT Over 1.581.6%

HT Both Teams Score58.5%

HT Away Win56.6%

2nd Half More Goals52.6%

HT/FT Away/Away49.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.7%

HT Home Win21.6%

HT Under 1.518.4%

Equal Goals Each Half15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.0%

HT/FT Home/Home10.9%

HT/FT Home/Away6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.6%

HT Under 0.54.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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