Scotland · Premiership

Aberdeen vs Falkirk

Kick-off 20:45 · Wed, Oct 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Aberdeen 41.5% Draw 26.6% Falkirk 31.9%

Over 2.5 - 46% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

75%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Aberdeen: 3 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.9%

Exact-score model probability

Aberdeen

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

Falkirk

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:15 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 3

Aberdeen 0wins ·1 draws ·Falkirk 2wins

Aberdeen 1-1 FalkirkMar 14, 2026

Aberdeen 0-1 FalkirkJan 3, 2026

Aberdeen 0-1 FalkirkAug 31, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aberdeen win41.5%

Draw26.6%

Falkirk win31.9%

Over 1.5 goals71.8%

Over 2.5 goals46.3%

Over 3.5 goals24.8%

Both teams to score63.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.0%

Home Team to Score

86.7%

Home Over 0.5

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.0%

Home or Away (12)78.9%

Draw No Bet - Home75.9%

Both Halves Over 0.561.0%

Goal in Both Halves61.0%

Home Win59.8%

Draw or Away (X2)40.1%

Draw No Bet - Away24.1%

Draw21.1%

Away Win19.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals91.0%

Over 1.5 Goals81.0%

Under 4.5 Goals80.4%

Under 3.5 Goals63.3%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals59.1%

1-3 Goals58.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.3%

Under 2.5 Goals40.9%

3-4 Goals39.5%

Over 3.5 Goals36.7%

4+ Goals36.7%

1-2 Goals36.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals19.0%

Over 5.5 Goals9.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.7%

Away Team to Score64.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.7%

Home Clean Sheet35.1%

Home Win to Nil30.4%

Away Clean Sheet13.3%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.7%

Away Over 0.564.9%

Home Over 1.559.9%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 035.1%

Home Over 2.532.8%

Home 3+ Goals32.8%

Away Over 1.528.1%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.8%

Away Exactly 219.2%

Home Exactly 013.3%

Away Over 2.58.9%

Away 3+ Goals8.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.5%

Home to win by 123.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.1%

Home to win by 3+18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.546.4%

Home & Over 2.540.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.0%

Home & No BTTS30.4%

Home & BTTS29.4%

Home & Under 2.518.9%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

Draw & Under 2.514.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

Away & Over 2.511.6%

Away & BTTS10.4%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

Away & Under 2.57.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.8%

HT Under 1.559.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Home Win44.5%

HT Over 1.540.1%

HT/FT Home/Home38.6%

HT Draw37.1%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.2%

Equal Goals Each Half23.7%

HT Both Teams Score22.4%

HT Away Win18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.0%

HT/FT Away/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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