Scotland · Premiership

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Aberdeen 48.5% Draw 27.3% ST Johnstone 24.1%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to ST Johnstone: 3 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.2%

Exact-score model probability

Aberdeen

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

ST Johnstone

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Aberdeen 2wins ·2 draws ·ST Johnstone 1wins

Aberdeen 0-0 ST JohnstoneMar 15, 2025

Aberdeen 1-1 ST JohnstoneDec 7, 2024

Aberdeen 2-1 ST JohnstoneAug 5, 2024

Aberdeen 1-0 ST JohnstoneMay 4, 2024

Aberdeen 0-2 ST JohnstoneFeb 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aberdeen win48.5%

Draw27.3%

ST Johnstone win24.1%

Over 1.5 goals66.3%

Over 2.5 goals39.7%

Over 3.5 goals19.6%

Both teams to score52.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

88.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

86.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

86.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.9%

Home or Away (12)76.0%

Draw No Bet - Home74.9%

Home Win56.9%

Both Halves Over 0.551.5%

Goal in Both Halves51.5%

Draw or Away (X2)43.1%

Draw No Bet - Away25.1%

Draw24.0%

Exactly 1 Goal19.9%

Away Win19.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.4%

Over 0.5 Goals92.2%

Under 4.5 Goals88.4%

Under 3.5 Goals74.6%

Over 1.5 Goals72.3%

1-3 Goals66.8%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 2.5 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals46.9%

1-2 Goals45.3%

3-4 Goals35.4%

Under 1.5 Goals27.7%

Over 3.5 Goals25.4%

Exactly 2 Goals25.4%

4+ Goals25.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals11.6%

Under 0.5 Goals7.8%

Exactly 0 Goals7.8%

Over 5.5 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score81.5%

Away Team to Score57.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)52.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)47.2%

Home Clean Sheet42.1%

Home Win to Nil34.4%

Away Clean Sheet18.5%

Away Win to Nil10.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.581.5%

Away Over 0.557.8%

Home Over 1.550.3%

Away Exactly 042.1%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Home Exactly 131.2%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Over 2.524.0%

Home 3+ Goals24.0%

Away Over 1.521.4%

Home Exactly 018.5%

Away Exactly 215.7%

Away Over 2.55.7%

Away 3+ Goals5.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.4%

Home to win by 125.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 217.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.9%

Home to win by 3+13.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.541.7%

BTTS & Over 2.535.8%

Home & No BTTS34.4%

Home & Over 2.532.6%

Home & Under 2.524.3%

Home & BTTS22.5%

Draw & Under 2.519.2%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.2%

Away & No BTTS10.7%

Away & Under 2.59.6%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

Away & BTTS8.4%

Draw & Over 2.54.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.568.3%

HT Under 1.568.1%

2nd Half More Goals42.8%

HT Draw41.8%

HT Home Win41.0%

HT/FT Home/Home35.5%

HT Over 1.531.9%

HT Under 0.531.7%

1st Half More Goals30.8%

Equal Goals Each Half26.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.9%

HT Away Win17.3%

HT Both Teams Score17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.3%

HT/FT Away/Away10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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