Scotland · Premiership

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Aberdeen 41.2% Draw 29.6% ST Mirren 29.2%

Over 2.5 - 35% BTTS - 39%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 16.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 3 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Aberdeen 1 wins, 1 draws, ST Mirren 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.6%

Exact-score model probability

Aberdeen

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

ST Mirren

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Aberdeen 1wins ·1 draws ·ST Mirren 3wins

Aberdeen 0-2 ST MirrenMay 12, 2026

Aberdeen 0-2 ST MirrenApr 4, 2026

Aberdeen 3-3 ST MirrenDec 3, 2025

Aberdeen 1-0 ST MirrenOct 18, 2025

Aberdeen 0-1 ST MirrenMay 3, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aberdeen win41.2%

Draw29.6%

ST Mirren win29.2%

Over 1.5 goals61.9%

Over 2.5 goals34.9%

Over 3.5 goals16.1%

Both teams to score38.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.1%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)80.1%

Draw No Bet - Away72.5%

Home or Away (12)72.4%

Away Win52.5%

Home or Draw (1X)47.5%

Both Halves Over 0.542.5%

Goal in Both Halves42.5%

Draw27.6%

Draw No Bet - Home27.5%

Exactly 1 Goal25.3%

Home Win19.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.8%

Under 4.5 Goals93.5%

Over 0.5 Goals88.1%

Under 3.5 Goals83.3%

1-3 Goals71.4%

Under 2.5 Goals64.2%

Over 1.5 Goals62.8%

2-4 Goals56.3%

1-2 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.1%

Under 1.5 Goals37.2%

Over 2.5 Goals35.8%

3-4 Goals29.3%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Over 3.5 Goals16.7%

4+ Goals16.7%

Under 0.5 Goals11.9%

Exactly 0 Goals11.9%

Over 4.5 Goals6.5%

Over 5.5 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score75.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.8%

Home Team to Score52.2%

Away Clean Sheet47.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.2%

Away Win to Nil35.9%

Home Clean Sheet24.9%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.575.1%

Home Over 0.552.2%

Home Exactly 047.8%

Away Over 1.540.5%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 024.9%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Home Over 1.516.9%

Away Over 2.516.4%

Away 3+ Goals16.4%

Home Exactly 213.0%

Home Over 2.53.9%

Home 3+ Goals3.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home74.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.6%

Away to win by 126.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 114.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.9%

Away to win by 3+9.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.5%

Home to win by 24.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.2%

Home to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.552.0%

Away & No BTTS35.9%

Away & Under 2.528.1%

BTTS & Over 2.527.0%

Away & Over 2.524.4%

Draw & Under 2.524.1%

Away & BTTS16.6%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

Home & Under 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Home & Over 2.57.8%

Home & BTTS6.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.575.1%

HT Over 0.561.6%

HT Draw46.8%

2nd Half More Goals40.7%

HT Under 0.538.4%

HT Away Win36.6%

HT/FT Away/Away31.5%

1st Half More Goals29.8%

Equal Goals Each Half29.5%

HT Over 1.524.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.0%

HT Home Win16.7%

HT Both Teams Score13.1%

HT/FT Home/Home10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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