UEFA Europa League

AC Milan vs Benfica

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

AC Milan 2.5% Draw 6.1% Benfica 91.4%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 56%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

91%

Draw No Bet - Away

DNB away — draw refunds stake

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-4 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 11 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

AC Milan

D D W W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Benfica

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 18:4 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

AC Milan win2.5%

Draw6.1%

Benfica win91.4%

Over 1.5 goals96.6%

Over 2.5 goals88.4%

Over 3.5 goals74.8%

Both teams to score55.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.3%

HT Over 0.5

90.2%

Away Over 1.5

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away97.0%

Draw or Away (X2)94.0%

Home or Away (12)91.3%

Away Win88.6%

Both Halves Over 0.584.9%

Goal in Both Halves84.9%

Home or Draw (1X)8.1%

Draw5.4%

Draw No Bet - Home3.0%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Home Win2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals85.5%

Over 3.5 Goals72.3%

4+ Goals72.3%

Under 5.5 Goals62.2%

Over 4.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Even48.5%

Total Goals Odd48.2%

Under 4.5 Goals44.7%

Over 5.5 Goals37.8%

2-4 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals30.2%

Under 3.5 Goals27.7%

1-3 Goals23.8%

2-3 Goals20.8%

Under 2.5 Goals14.5%

Exactly 3 Goals13.2%

1-2 Goals10.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.7%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.4%

Home Team to Score54.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.5%

Away Clean Sheet42.5%

Away Win to Nil41.9%

Home Clean Sheet1.3%

Home Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.4%

Away Over 1.589.7%

Away Over 2.577.4%

Away 3+ Goals77.4%

Home Over 0.554.2%

Home Exactly 042.5%

Home Exactly 134.9%

Home Over 1.519.3%

Home Exactly 214.4%

Away Exactly 212.3%

Away Exactly 15.7%

Home Over 2.54.9%

Home 3+ Goals4.9%

Away Exactly 01.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away94.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)88.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)81.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away78.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)68.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home68.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away62.5%

Away to win by 3+62.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home52.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)44.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away44.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)34.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home34.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away28.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home18.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.5%

Away to win by 215.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away15.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 110.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home8.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw2.0%

Home to win by 12.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.6%

Home to win by 20.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.580.7%

BTTS & Over 2.551.4%

Away & BTTS46.7%

Away & No BTTS41.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.534.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & BTTS4.8%

Draw & Over 2.52.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Home & Over 2.52.0%

Home & BTTS2.0%

Home & Under 2.50.7%

Home & No BTTS0.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.2%

HT Away Win75.6%

HT/FT Away/Away73.8%

HT Over 1.567.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Under 1.532.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score26.5%

HT Draw18.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.7%

HT Under 0.59.8%

HT Home Win6.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Home/Home1.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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