Italy · Serie A

AC Milan vs Bologna

Full time · 2:4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

AC Milan 53.1% Draw 25.4% Bologna 21.5%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 59%

✓ Pick was correct (2:4)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AC Milan: 12 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10%

Exact-score model probability

AC Milan

W W D W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Bologna

W L W D L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

AC Milan 3wins ·1 draws ·Bologna 1wins

AC Milan 3-0 BolognaFeb 3, 2026

AC Milan 1-0 BolognaSep 14, 2025

AC Milan 3-1 BolognaMay 9, 2025

AC Milan 1-2 BolognaFeb 27, 2025

AC Milan 2-2 BolognaJan 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AC Milan win53.1%

Draw25.4%

Bologna win21.5%

Over 1.5 goals71.1%

Over 2.5 goals60.9%

Over 3.5 goals23.9%

Both teams to score58.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

92.0%

Under 5.5 Goals

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.4%

Home or Away (12)79.2%

Draw No Bet - Home77.8%

Home Win61.6%

Both Halves Over 0.560.5%

Goal in Both Halves60.5%

Draw or Away (X2)38.4%

Draw No Bet - Away22.2%

Draw20.7%

Away Win17.6%

Exactly 1 Goal14.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.2%

Under 5.5 Goals91.2%

Under 4.5 Goals80.9%

Over 1.5 Goals80.6%

Under 3.5 Goals63.9%

2-4 Goals61.5%

1-3 Goals59.1%

Over 2.5 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.5%

Under 2.5 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals39.4%

1-2 Goals36.7%

Over 3.5 Goals36.1%

4+ Goals36.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.1%

Under 1.5 Goals19.4%

Over 4.5 Goals19.1%

Over 5.5 Goals8.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.8%

Exactly 0 Goals4.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.0%

Away Team to Score63.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.2%

Home Clean Sheet37.0%

Home Win to Nil32.2%

Away Clean Sheet13.0%

Away Win to Nil8.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.0%

Away Over 0.563.0%

Home Over 1.560.5%

Away Exactly 037.0%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Over 2.533.5%

Home 3+ Goals33.5%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.5%

Away Over 1.526.2%

Away Exactly 218.3%

Home Exactly 013.0%

Away Over 2.57.9%

Away 3+ Goals7.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.8%

Home to win by 123.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.1%

Home to win by 3+19.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 218.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.4%

Away to win by 24.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.6%

Away to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.1%

Home & Over 2.541.8%

Home & No BTTS32.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.7%

Home & BTTS29.4%

Home & Under 2.519.8%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Draw & Under 2.514.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.4%

Away & Over 2.510.5%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Away & BTTS9.5%

Away & No BTTS8.2%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.5%

HT Under 1.560.3%

HT Home Win45.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.7%

HT/FT Home/Home39.9%

HT Over 1.539.7%

HT Draw37.1%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.8%

HT Both Teams Score21.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.5%

HT Away Win17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.0%

HT/FT Away/Away9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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