Italy · Serie A

AC Milan vs Lecce

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

AC Milan 66.0% Draw 22.3% Lecce 11.8%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Lecce: 11 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

AC Milan

D D W W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Lecce

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

AC Milan 5wins ·0 draws ·Lecce 0wins

AC Milan 1-0 LecceJan 18, 2026

AC Milan 2-0 LecceAug 29, 2025

AC Milan 3-2 LecceMar 8, 2025

AC Milan 3-0 LecceSep 27, 2024

AC Milan 3-0 LecceApr 6, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AC Milan win66.0%

Draw22.3%

Lecce win11.8%

Over 1.5 goals68.1%

Over 2.5 goals58.4%

Over 3.5 goals21.1%

Both teams to score62.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.4%

Home or Draw (1X)71.4%

Draw No Bet - Home62.6%

Both Halves Over 0.560.2%

Goal in Both Halves60.2%

Draw or Away (X2)52.2%

Home Win47.8%

Draw No Bet - Away37.4%

Away Win28.6%

Draw23.6%

Exactly 1 Goal14.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.4%

Under 4.5 Goals81.2%

Over 1.5 Goals80.4%

Under 3.5 Goals64.2%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.4%

Over 2.5 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.6%

Under 2.5 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals39.3%

1-2 Goals37.0%

Over 3.5 Goals35.8%

4+ Goals35.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.2%

Under 1.5 Goals19.6%

Over 4.5 Goals18.8%

Over 5.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.3%

Away Team to Score72.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.4%

Home Clean Sheet27.5%

Home Win to Nil22.7%

Away Clean Sheet17.7%

Away Win to Nil12.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.3%

Away Over 0.572.5%

Home Over 1.551.7%

Away Over 1.537.0%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Home Exactly 130.6%

Away Exactly 027.5%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Over 2.525.1%

Home 3+ Goals25.1%

Away Exactly 222.9%

Home Exactly 017.7%

Away Over 2.514.1%

Away 3+ Goals14.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.1%

Home to win by 122.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.5%

Away to win by 116.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.2%

Home to win by 3+11.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 28.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.1%

Away to win by 3+4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.548.8%

Home & Over 2.532.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.9%

Home & BTTS25.2%

Home & No BTTS22.7%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Away & Over 2.518.3%

Draw & Under 2.515.8%

Away & BTTS15.8%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Away & No BTTS12.8%

BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Away & Under 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.3%

HT Under 1.560.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT Over 1.539.4%

HT Draw38.7%

HT Home Win36.7%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home29.5%

HT Under 0.525.7%

HT Away Win24.6%

Equal Goals Each Half23.9%

HT Both Teams Score23.8%

HT/FT Away/Away16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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