Italy · Serie A

AC Milan vs Venezia

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

AC Milan 69.0% Draw 20.7% Venezia 10.3%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Head-to-head record: AC Milan 4 wins, 0 draws, Venezia 0 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.6%

Exact-score model probability

AC Milan

W L W L L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Venezia

L W D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

AC Milan 4wins ·0 draws ·Venezia 0wins

AC Milan 2-0 VeneziaApr 27, 2025

AC Milan 4-0 VeneziaSep 14, 2024

AC Milan 3-0 VeneziaJan 9, 2022

AC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSep 22, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

AC Milan win69.0%

Draw20.7%

Venezia win10.3%

Over 1.5 goals71.2%

Over 2.5 goals84.6%

Over 3.5 goals24.0%

Both teams to score82.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Home or Draw (1X)79.6%

Draw No Bet - Home75.3%

Both Halves Over 0.574.3%

Goal in Both Halves74.3%

Home Win61.6%

Draw or Away (X2)38.2%

Draw No Bet - Away24.7%

Away Win20.2%

Draw18.0%

Exactly 1 Goal7.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.8%

Under 5.5 Goals78.5%

Over 2.5 Goals76.2%

Under 4.5 Goals62.9%

Over 3.5 Goals56.7%

4+ Goals56.7%

2-4 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.3%

1-3 Goals41.4%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals37.1%

2-3 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals23.8%

1-2 Goals21.9%

Over 5.5 Goals21.5%

Exactly 3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals14.6%

Under 1.5 Goals9.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.2%

Away Team to Score76.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.6%

Home Clean Sheet23.6%

Home Win to Nil21.8%

Away Clean Sheet7.7%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.2%

Away Over 0.576.3%

Home Over 1.572.4%

Home Over 2.547.1%

Home 3+ Goals47.1%

Away Over 1.542.2%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 023.6%

Home Exactly 119.7%

Away Over 2.517.7%

Away 3+ Goals17.7%

Home Exactly 07.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.3%

Home to win by 3+23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 120.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 25.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 3+3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.7%

Home & Over 2.551.0%

Home & BTTS39.9%

Home & No BTTS21.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.0%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Away & Over 2.515.7%

Away & BTTS14.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

Home & Under 2.510.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Under 2.58.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

Away & Under 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.5%

HT Over 1.553.8%

HT Home Win47.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.2%

HT/FT Home/Home41.2%

HT Both Teams Score32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.3%

HT Away Win20.7%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT Under 0.516.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.2%

HT/FT Away/Away11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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