UEFA Champions League

AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid

Kick-off 18:45 · Wed, Nov 4

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

AEK Athens FC 16.7% Draw 12.8% Real Madrid 70.5%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-4 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 7 points versus 18 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.40 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

AEK Athens FC

L L W W D

Form 2-1-2 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1.6

Real Madrid

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 18:6 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

AEK Athens FC win16.7%

Draw12.8%

Real Madrid win70.5%

Over 1.5 goals99.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.9%

Over 3.5 goals89.2%

Both teams to score89.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Away Over 1.5

89.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.4%

Goal in Both Halves92.4%

Home or Away (12)84.8%

Draw No Bet - Away80.8%

Draw or Away (X2)80.5%

Away Win68.5%

Home or Draw (1X)28.3%

Draw No Bet - Home19.2%

Home Win16.3%

Draw12.0%

Exactly 1 Goal0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals92.8%

Over 3.5 Goals86.3%

4+ Goals86.3%

Over 4.5 Goals75.6%

Over 5.5 Goals61.4%

Total Goals Odd48.4%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Under 5.5 Goals38.6%

Under 4.5 Goals24.4%

2-4 Goals20.2%

3-4 Goals17.2%

Under 3.5 Goals13.7%

1-3 Goals10.3%

2-3 Goals9.4%

Under 2.5 Goals7.2%

Exactly 3 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 2 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.4%

Home Team to Score87.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.0%

Away Clean Sheet9.5%

Away Win to Nil9.4%

Home Clean Sheet1.4%

Home Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.4%

Away Over 1.589.6%

Home Over 0.587.3%

Away Over 2.576.9%

Away 3+ Goals76.9%

Home Over 1.565.2%

Home Over 2.539.5%

Home 3+ Goals39.5%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Home Exactly 122.1%

Away Exactly 212.6%

Home Exactly 09.5%

Away Exactly 15.9%

Away Exactly 01.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home83.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home73.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home59.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away53.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)43.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home43.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away37.8%

Away to win by 3+37.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)28.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home28.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away23.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 115.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw10.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.1%

Home to win by 18.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.6%

Home to win by 24.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.6%

Home to win by 3+3.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.7%

Away & Over 2.566.7%

Away & BTTS59.1%

Home & Over 2.515.6%

Home & BTTS15.1%

Draw & BTTS11.9%

Draw & Over 2.510.5%

Away & No BTTS9.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Draw & Under 2.51.5%

BTTS & Under 2.51.3%

Home & No BTTS1.2%

Home & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.9%

HT Over 1.579.7%

HT Away Win58.0%

HT Both Teams Score55.3%

2nd Half More Goals52.2%

HT/FT Away/Away51.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.9%

HT Under 1.520.3%

HT Home Win20.1%

Equal Goals Each Half15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.5%

HT/FT Home/Home9.7%

HT/FT Home/Away6.4%

HT Under 0.55.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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