UEFA Europa Conference League

Ajax vs Atalanta

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

Ajax 80.5% Draw 10.1% Atalanta 9.4%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

91%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Ajax: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Ajax

W D D W W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 19:10 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Atalanta

L W L L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ajax win80.5%

Draw10.1%

Atalanta win9.4%

Over 1.5 goals98.8%

Over 2.5 goals94.7%

Over 3.5 goals86.7%

Both teams to score82.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

92.0%

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.1%

Goal in Both Halves91.1%

Draw No Bet - Home89.4%

Home or Draw (1X)86.7%

Home or Away (12)86.7%

Home Win77.5%

Draw or Away (X2)18.5%

Draw No Bet - Away10.6%

Draw9.3%

Away Win9.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals90.9%

Over 3.5 Goals83.2%

4+ Goals83.2%

Over 4.5 Goals71.1%

Over 5.5 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals44.2%

Under 4.5 Goals28.9%

2-4 Goals23.5%

3-4 Goals19.8%

Under 3.5 Goals16.8%

1-3 Goals12.6%

2-3 Goals11.4%

Under 2.5 Goals9.1%

Exactly 3 Goals7.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

1-2 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score79.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.1%

Home Clean Sheet16.1%

Home Win to Nil15.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 0.579.8%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.551.1%

Away Exactly 128.8%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Away Over 2.525.4%

Away 3+ Goals25.4%

Away Exactly 016.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away63.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home48.2%

Home to win by 3+48.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away47.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home32.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away31.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 113.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.3%

Away to win by 15.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.4%

Home & Over 2.574.7%

Home & BTTS61.5%

Home & No BTTS15.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

Draw & BTTS9.1%

Away & Over 2.58.6%

Away & BTTS8.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Home & Under 2.52.7%

Draw & Under 2.51.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.1%

HT Over 1.577.3%

HT Home Win65.9%

HT/FT Home/Home61.5%

2nd Half More Goals51.7%

HT Both Teams Score47.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.522.7%

HT Draw20.2%

Equal Goals Each Half15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT Away Win13.9%

HT Under 0.55.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Away/Away5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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