Netherlands · Eredivisie

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 21:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Ajax 52.3% Draw 25.4% AZ Alkmaar 22.3%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Ajax: 14 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Ajax

W W D D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 20:8 Scored/game 3.33 Conceded/game 1.33

AZ Alkmaar

L D L W D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Ajax 0wins ·2 draws ·AZ Alkmaar 3wins

Ajax 1-1 AZ AlkmaarFeb 8, 2026

Ajax 0-2 AZ AlkmaarOct 18, 2025

Ajax 2-2 AZ AlkmaarMar 16, 2025

Ajax 1-2 AZ AlkmaarDec 8, 2024

Ajax 0-2 AZ AlkmaarFeb 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ajax win52.3%

Draw25.4%

AZ Alkmaar win22.3%

Over 1.5 goals81.8%

Over 2.5 goals97.9%

Over 3.5 goals35.8%

Both teams to score95.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.4%

Both Halves Over 0.5

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.8%

Goal in Both Halves88.8%

Home or Away (12)82.5%

Draw or Away (X2)61.6%

Home or Draw (1X)54.7%

Draw No Bet - Away54.2%

Draw No Bet - Home45.8%

Away Win44.7%

Home Win37.7%

Draw16.9%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals97.3%

Over 2.5 Goals92.2%

Over 3.5 Goals82.3%

4+ Goals82.3%

Over 4.5 Goals68.0%

Over 5.5 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 5.5 Goals48.6%

Under 4.5 Goals32.0%

2-4 Goals29.3%

3-4 Goals24.2%

Under 3.5 Goals17.7%

1-3 Goals16.8%

2-3 Goals15.0%

Exactly 3 Goals9.9%

Under 2.5 Goals7.8%

1-2 Goals6.9%

Exactly 2 Goals5.1%

Under 1.5 Goals2.7%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.4%

Home Team to Score93.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)88.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)11.4%

Away Clean Sheet6.1%

Away Win to Nil5.8%

Home Clean Sheet4.9%

Home Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.4%

Home Over 0.593.2%

Away Over 1.579.6%

Home Over 1.576.1%

Away Over 2.557.3%

Away 3+ Goals57.3%

Home Over 2.552.3%

Home 3+ Goals52.3%

Home Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 117.1%

Away Exactly 114.9%

Home Exactly 06.1%

Away Exactly 04.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home83.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home70.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home54.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)44.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away28.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.2%

Away to win by 3+16.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 114.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.5%

Away to win by 212.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.2%

Home to win by 3+12.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.7%

Home to win by 210.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.586.0%

Away & Over 2.542.4%

Away & BTTS38.9%

Home & Over 2.535.7%

Home & BTTS33.1%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Draw & Over 2.514.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.1%

Away & No BTTS5.8%

Home & No BTTS4.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.6%

HT Over 1.573.4%

HT Both Teams Score53.0%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Away Win39.2%

HT Home Win34.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away29.3%

HT Under 1.526.6%

HT Draw26.3%

HT/FT Home/Home24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.4%

HT Under 0.57.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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