Netherlands · Eredivisie

Ajax vs Heerenveen

Kick-off 15:45 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Ajax 65.1% Draw 21.3% Heerenveen 13.6%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Ajax: 14 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Ajax

D W W W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 15:5 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Heerenveen

W L D L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Ajax 2wins ·2 draws ·Heerenveen 1wins

Ajax 0-0 HeerenveenMay 17, 2026

Ajax 1-1 HeerenveenNov 1, 2025

Ajax 2-0 HeerenveenJan 19, 2025

Ajax 1-0 HeerenveenAug 11, 2024

Ajax 2-3 HeerenveenFeb 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ajax win65.1%

Draw21.3%

Heerenveen win13.6%

Over 1.5 goals82.9%

Over 2.5 goals88.6%

Over 3.5 goals38.0%

Both teams to score71.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Home87.8%

Home or Away (12)86.3%

Both Halves Over 0.576.8%

Goal in Both Halves76.8%

Home Win75.8%

Draw or Away (X2)23.8%

Draw13.2%

Draw No Bet - Away12.2%

Away Win10.5%

Exactly 1 Goal6.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals78.9%

Under 5.5 Goals75.3%

Over 3.5 Goals60.5%

4+ Goals60.5%

Under 4.5 Goals58.9%

2-4 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals41.1%

Under 3.5 Goals39.5%

3-4 Goals37.8%

1-3 Goals37.5%

2-3 Goals31.4%

Over 5.5 Goals24.7%

Under 2.5 Goals21.1%

1-2 Goals19.2%

Exactly 3 Goals18.4%

Exactly 2 Goals13.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score67.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.6%

Home Clean Sheet32.0%

Home Win to Nil30.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil3.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.581.0%

Away Over 0.567.5%

Home Over 2.559.3%

Home 3+ Goals59.3%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Away Exactly 032.0%

Away Over 1.531.2%

Home Exactly 221.7%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Home Exactly 114.0%

Away Over 2.510.6%

Away 3+ Goals10.6%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.4%

Home to win by 3+37.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 219.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 118.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.8%

Away to win by 16.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.564.3%

BTTS & Over 2.559.3%

Home & BTTS45.2%

Home & No BTTS30.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS11.8%

Home & Under 2.511.5%

Away & Over 2.57.9%

Away & BTTS7.5%

Draw & Over 2.56.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Away & No BTTS3.1%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.1%

HT Home Win58.9%

HT Over 1.556.7%

HT/FT Home/Home54.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT Under 1.543.3%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score30.0%

HT Draw27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT Under 0.514.9%

HT Away Win13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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