Netherlands · Eredivisie
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
📊 Our Prediction
Home +5.5 (Handicap)
60% confidence
Over 2.5 - 97%
BTTS - 93%
🎯 Best Pick
Both Teams Score
BTTS Poisson estimate
🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree
▸ Show 2 alternatives
Over 1.5 Goals
Goal-line projection
Home or Draw (1X)
Double chance from Poisson
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
📈 Probability Breakdown
Ajax win59.6%
Draw22.0%
NEC Nijmegen win18.3%
Over 1.5 goals86.9%
Over 2.5 goals97.4%
Over 3.5 goals44.9%
Both teams to score92.5%
🎯 Full Market Board
Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.
Over 2.5 Goals
91.9%
Away Team to Score
89.6%
Away Over 0.5
89.6%
Match Result (11)
Both Halves Over 0.588.9%
Goal in Both Halves88.9%
Home or Away (12)83.6%
Home or Draw (1X)74.0%
Draw No Bet - Home70.1%
Home Win58.6%
Draw or Away (X2)40.5%
Draw No Bet - Away29.9%
Away Win25.0%
Draw15.4%
Exactly 1 Goal1.7%
Goals Over/Under (23)
Over 0.5 Goals98.7%
Over 1.5 Goals97.0%
Over 2.5 Goals91.9%
Over 3.5 Goals82.1%
4+ Goals82.1%
Over 4.5 Goals67.9%
Over 5.5 Goals51.3%
Total Goals Odd49.5%
Total Goals Even49.5%
Under 5.5 Goals48.7%
Under 4.5 Goals32.1%
2-4 Goals29.1%
3-4 Goals24.0%
Under 3.5 Goals17.9%
1-3 Goals16.6%
2-3 Goals14.9%
Exactly 3 Goals9.8%
Under 2.5 Goals8.1%
1-2 Goals6.8%
Exactly 2 Goals5.1%
Under 1.5 Goals3.0%
Under 0.5 Goals1.3%
Exactly 0 Goals0.3%
BTTS & Defence (8)
Home Team to Score95.8%
Away Team to Score89.6%
Both Teams Score (GG)86.8%
No Both Teams Score (NG)13.2%
Home Clean Sheet9.4%
Home Win to Nil9.1%
Away Clean Sheet3.2%
Away Win to Nil2.9%
Team Goals (14)
Home Over 0.595.8%
Away Over 0.589.6%
Home Over 1.584.9%
Away Over 1.567.5%
Home Over 2.566.0%
Home 3+ Goals66.0%
Away Over 2.541.5%
Away 3+ Goals41.5%
Away Exactly 226.1%
Away Exactly 122.1%
Home Exactly 218.9%
Home Exactly 110.9%
Away Exactly 09.4%
Home Exactly 03.2%
Handicap & Margin (60)
Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%
Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%
European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%
Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%
European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.5%
Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%
Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.8%
European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.8%
Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.1%
European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.1%
Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.6%
European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.6%
Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.5%
European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.5%
Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.0%
European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.0%
Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.8%
European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.8%
Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.6%
Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.4%
European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.4%
Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.6%
European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.6%
Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.5%
European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.5%
Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.2%
European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.2%
Home to win by 3+26.2%
Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.0%
European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%
Home to win by 116.9%
European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%
Home to win by 215.4%
Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.5%
European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.5%
Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.5%
European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.5%
European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.7%
European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%
Away to win by 111.6%
European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.6%
European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%
Away to win by 27.2%
Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.0%
European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.0%
Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%
European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.3%
Away to win by 3+6.3%
European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%
European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.7%
Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.8%
European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.8%
Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.5%
European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.5%
European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%
Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%
European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%
European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%
Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%
European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%
Combos (15)
BTTS & Over 2.584.3%
Home & Over 2.555.7%
Home & BTTS49.5%
Away & Over 2.523.5%
Away & BTTS22.2%
Draw & BTTS15.1%
Draw & Over 2.512.7%
Home & No BTTS9.1%
No BTTS & Over 2.57.6%
No BTTS & Under 2.54.7%
Away & No BTTS2.9%
Home & Under 2.52.8%
Draw & Under 2.52.7%
BTTS & Under 2.52.4%
Away & Under 2.51.5%
Half-Time & HT/FT (20)
HT Over 0.592.7%
HT Over 1.573.5%
HT Both Teams Score51.5%
2nd Half More Goals51.1%
HT Home Win48.7%
HT/FT Home/Home40.6%
1st Half More Goals32.4%
HT Under 1.526.5%
HT Away Win25.9%
HT Draw25.4%
Equal Goals Each Half16.5%
HT/FT Away/Away15.3%
HT/FT Draw/Home13.1%
HT Under 0.57.3%
HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%
HT/FT Away/Home5.8%
HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%
HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%
HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%
HT/FT Home/Away3.2%
Corners (12)
Home Over 4.5 Corners84.9%
Home Most Corners83.1%
Over 8.5 Corners75.7%
Over 9.5 Corners64.6%
Under 11.5 Corners59.4%
Over 10.5 Corners52.5%
Under 10.5 Corners47.5%
Over 11.5 Corners40.6%
Under 9.5 Corners35.4%
Away Over 4.5 Corners29.8%
Under 8.5 Corners24.3%
Away Most Corners10.1%
Cards (9)
Under 5.5 Cards81.1%
Over 2.5 Cards73.6%
Under 4.5 Cards66.1%
Over 3.5 Cards53.3%
Under 3.5 Cards46.7%
Over 4.5 Cards33.9%
Under 2.5 Cards26.4%
Over 5.5 Cards18.9%
Over 0.5 Red Cards15.3%
How we predict:
Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.