Netherlands · Eredivisie

Ajax vs Willem II

Kick-off 19:00 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

Ajax 81.3% Draw 13.6% Willem II 4.8%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

95%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Ajax: 11 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Ajax

W L W W D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 18:10 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.67

Willem II

D L D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:14 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 4

Ajax 4wins ·0 draws ·Willem II 0wins

Ajax 2-1 Willem IIApr 13, 2025

Ajax 1-0 Willem IIOct 27, 2024

Ajax 1-0 Willem IIFeb 19, 2022

Ajax 5-0 Willem IIDec 2, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ajax win81.3%

Draw13.6%

Willem II win4.8%

Over 1.5 goals85.2%

Over 2.5 goals95.3%

Over 3.5 goals42.8%

Both teams to score84.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

HT Over 0.5

89.7%

Draw No Bet - Home

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home89.5%

Home or Draw (1X)89.4%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Both Halves Over 0.584.2%

Goal in Both Halves84.2%

Home Win78.6%

Draw or Away (X2)20.0%

Draw10.8%

Draw No Bet - Away10.5%

Away Win9.2%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals86.6%

Over 3.5 Goals72.9%

4+ Goals72.9%

Under 5.5 Goals62.0%

Over 4.5 Goals55.6%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 4.5 Goals44.4%

2-4 Goals39.2%

Over 5.5 Goals38.0%

3-4 Goals31.0%

Under 3.5 Goals27.1%

1-3 Goals25.0%

2-3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.7%

Under 2.5 Goals13.4%

1-2 Goals11.3%

Exactly 2 Goals8.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score72.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.9%

Home Clean Sheet25.7%

Home Win to Nil25.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.4%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.1%

Away Over 0.572.9%

Home Over 2.570.3%

Home 3+ Goals70.3%

Away Over 1.538.4%

Away Exactly 134.5%

Away Exactly 025.7%

Away Exactly 223.2%

Home Exactly 216.8%

Away Over 2.515.1%

Away 3+ Goals15.1%

Home Exactly 19.1%

Home Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away70.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.7%

Home to win by 3+44.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 115.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.7%

Away to win by 15.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.4%

Away to win by 22.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.8%

BTTS & Over 2.568.0%

Home & BTTS53.6%

Home & No BTTS25.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.7%

Draw & BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Away & Over 2.57.8%

Away & BTTS7.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.0%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

Draw & Under 2.53.8%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.7%

HT Over 1.566.4%

HT Home Win63.3%

HT/FT Home/Home59.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.7%

HT Both Teams Score36.9%

HT Under 1.533.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT Away Win13.1%

HT Under 0.510.3%

HT/FT Away/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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