Russia · Premier League

Akhmat vs FC Orenburg

Kick-off 17:30 · Fri, Oct 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Akhmat 74.3% Draw 17.4% FC Orenburg 8.3%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Orenburg: 4 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.1%

Exact-score model probability

Akhmat

D L D L D D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

FC Orenburg

D D D L W L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Akhmat win74.3%

Draw17.4%

FC Orenburg win8.3%

Over 1.5 goals84.5%

Over 2.5 goals63.0%

Over 3.5 goals40.8%

Both teams to score49.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.6%

Home Over 0.5

91.6%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.7%

Draw No Bet - Home89.1%

Home or Away (12)84.4%

Home Win75.2%

Both Halves Over 0.564.0%

Goal in Both Halves64.0%

Draw or Away (X2)24.7%

Draw15.4%

Exactly 1 Goal12.6%

Draw No Bet - Away10.9%

Away Win9.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Under 5.5 Goals89.0%

Over 1.5 Goals83.4%

Under 4.5 Goals77.3%

Over 2.5 Goals62.9%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 3.5 Goals59.3%

1-3 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.7%

Over 3.5 Goals40.7%

4+ Goals40.7%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals37.1%

1-2 Goals33.1%

Over 4.5 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.5%

Under 1.5 Goals16.6%

Over 5.5 Goals11.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals3.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.6%

Away Team to Score53.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.6%

Home Clean Sheet46.9%

Home Win to Nil43.0%

Away Clean Sheet8.3%

Away Win to Nil4.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.6%

Home Over 1.571.0%

Away Over 0.553.0%

Away Exactly 046.9%

Home Over 2.545.4%

Home 3+ Goals45.4%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Home Exactly 225.7%

Home Exactly 120.6%

Away Over 1.517.5%

Away Exactly 213.4%

Home Exactly 08.3%

Away Over 2.54.1%

Away 3+ Goals4.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.4%

Home to win by 3+31.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.1%

Home to win by 122.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.7%

Home to win by 221.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.7%

Away to win by 16.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.553.5%

Home & No BTTS43.0%

BTTS & Over 2.541.3%

Home & BTTS32.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.529.6%

Home & Under 2.521.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.6%

Draw & BTTS11.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Away & Over 2.55.2%

Away & BTTS4.9%

Away & No BTTS4.4%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.8%

HT Under 1.557.0%

HT Home Win55.9%

HT/FT Home/Home52.1%

2nd Half More Goals45.4%

HT Over 1.543.0%

HT Draw32.9%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Under 0.523.2%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.1%

HT Both Teams Score19.4%

HT Away Win11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.1%

HT/FT Away/Away4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners81.9%

Under 10.5 Corners72.6%

Under 9.5 Corners60.9%

Over 8.5 Corners52.2%

Under 8.5 Corners47.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Home Most Corners45.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners43.6%

Away Most Corners41.0%

Over 9.5 Corners39.1%

Over 10.5 Corners27.4%

Over 11.5 Corners18.1%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.6%

Under 5.5 Cards70.3%

Over 3.5 Cards65.8%

Under 4.5 Cards53.2%

Over 4.5 Cards46.8%

Under 3.5 Cards34.2%

Over 5.5 Cards29.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.0%

Under 2.5 Cards17.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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