Russia · Premier League

Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow

Kick-off 18:30 · Sun, Aug 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

35% confidence

Akhmat 32.5% Draw 32.6% Spartak Moscow 34.9%

Over 2.5 - 38% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 55%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 13.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Spartak Moscow: 6 points versus 7 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

55%

Market does not fully agree

Akhmat

D D D W

Form 1-3-0 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 0.75

Spartak Moscow

W D W L

Form 2-1-1 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Akhmat win32.5%

Draw32.6%

Spartak Moscow win34.9%

Over 1.5 goals66.4%

Over 2.5 goals37.8%

Over 3.5 goals18.1%

Both teams to score46.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

89.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

86.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

86.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)70.9%

Draw or Away (X2)65.7%

Home or Draw (1X)63.4%

Draw No Bet - Away51.7%

Draw No Bet - Home48.3%

Both Halves Over 0.544.2%

Goal in Both Halves44.2%

Away Win36.6%

Home Win34.3%

Draw29.1%

Exactly 1 Goal24.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.5%

Under 4.5 Goals92.7%

Over 0.5 Goals89.0%

Under 3.5 Goals81.9%

1-3 Goals70.8%

Over 1.5 Goals64.6%

Under 2.5 Goals62.2%

2-4 Goals57.3%

1-2 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Even50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

2-3 Goals46.5%

Over 2.5 Goals37.8%

Under 1.5 Goals35.4%

3-4 Goals30.5%

Exactly 2 Goals26.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.7%

Over 3.5 Goals18.1%

4+ Goals18.1%

Under 0.5 Goals11.0%

Exactly 0 Goals11.0%

Over 4.5 Goals7.3%

Over 5.5 Goals2.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score67.5%

Home Team to Score66.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.6%

Away Clean Sheet34.0%

Home Clean Sheet32.5%

Away Win to Nil23.0%

Home Win to Nil21.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.567.5%

Home Over 0.566.0%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 034.0%

Away Exactly 032.5%

Away Over 1.531.0%

Home Over 1.529.3%

Away Exactly 220.5%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Over 2.510.5%

Away 3+ Goals10.5%

Home Over 2.59.5%

Home 3+ Goals9.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.7%

Away to win by 121.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.4%

Home to win by 29.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.7%

Away to win by 3+4.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.1%

Home to win by 3+4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.548.8%

BTTS & Over 2.531.2%

Draw & Under 2.524.4%

Away & No BTTS23.0%

Home & No BTTS21.4%

Away & Under 2.519.4%

Home & Under 2.518.3%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Away & Over 2.517.2%

Home & Over 2.515.9%

Away & BTTS13.7%

BTTS & Under 2.513.4%

Home & BTTS12.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.7%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.573.9%

HT Over 0.562.9%

HT Draw46.8%

2nd Half More Goals41.1%

HT Under 0.537.1%

1st Half More Goals30.0%

Equal Goals Each Half28.9%

HT Away Win27.3%

HT Over 1.526.1%

HT Home Win25.9%

HT/FT Away/Away20.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.5%

HT/FT Home/Home19.4%

HT Both Teams Score15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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