Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr

Kick-off 19:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

Al-Ahli Jeddah 85.3% Draw 8.5% Al-Nassr 6.2%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 12 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.5%

Exact-score model probability

Al-Ahli Jeddah

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:7 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Al-Nassr

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Al-Ahli Jeddah 0wins ·0 draws ·Al-Nassr 1wins

Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-2 Al-NassrApr 29, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al-Ahli Jeddah win85.3%

Draw8.5%

Al-Nassr win6.2%

Over 1.5 goals98.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.2%

Over 3.5 goals83.5%

Both teams to score75.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

89.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.0%

Home or Draw (1X)89.8%

Both Halves Over 0.589.5%

Goal in Both Halves89.5%

Home or Away (12)88.3%

Home Win82.1%

Draw or Away (X2)13.9%

Draw7.7%

Draw No Bet - Away7.0%

Away Win6.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals89.4%

Over 3.5 Goals80.2%

4+ Goals80.2%

Over 4.5 Goals66.4%

Over 5.5 Goals50.2%

Under 5.5 Goals49.8%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals33.6%

2-4 Goals27.7%

3-4 Goals23.0%

Under 3.5 Goals19.8%

1-3 Goals15.6%

2-3 Goals14.0%

Under 2.5 Goals10.6%

Exactly 3 Goals9.3%

1-2 Goals6.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score72.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.0%

Home Clean Sheet23.1%

Home Win to Nil22.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.572.8%

Away Over 1.539.9%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Away Exactly 223.4%

Away Exactly 023.1%

Away Over 2.516.5%

Away 3+ Goals16.5%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)84.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away73.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home69.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)58.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away58.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home54.1%

Home to win by 3+54.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away41.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home37.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.3%

Home to win by 112.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 13.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.2%

BTTS & Over 2.570.3%

Home & BTTS59.2%

Home & No BTTS22.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.1%

Draw & BTTS7.4%

Draw & Over 2.55.7%

Away & Over 2.55.5%

Away & BTTS5.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Home & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.0%

HT Over 1.574.5%

HT Home Win69.9%

HT/FT Home/Home66.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Both Teams Score41.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.5%

HT Draw19.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win10.7%

HT Under 0.57.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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