Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al Diriyah vs Abha

Kick-off 19:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Al Diriyah 82.7% Draw 12.1% Abha 5.2%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 10.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Al Diriyah: 7 points versus 1 across the last 4 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.6%

Exact-score model probability

Al Diriyah

W W D L

Form 2-1-1 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

Abha

L L L D L

Form 0-1-4 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al Diriyah win82.7%

Draw12.1%

Abha win5.2%

Over 1.5 goals90.3%

Over 2.5 goals73.9%

Over 3.5 goals53.6%

Both teams to score51.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.2%

Home or Away (12)

88.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

86.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)93.7%

Draw No Bet - Home93.4%

Home or Away (12)88.7%

Home Win82.9%

Both Halves Over 0.572.5%

Goal in Both Halves72.5%

Draw or Away (X2)16.6%

Draw10.8%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Draw No Bet - Away6.6%

Away Win5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals89.2%

Under 5.5 Goals81.2%

Over 2.5 Goals73.5%

Under 4.5 Goals66.2%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals53.3%

4+ Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals46.7%

1-3 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals36.0%

Over 4.5 Goals33.8%

Under 2.5 Goals26.5%

1-2 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals18.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals10.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score52.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.9%

Home Clean Sheet47.0%

Home Win to Nil44.9%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.581.1%

Home Over 2.559.5%

Home 3+ Goals59.5%

Away Over 0.552.5%

Away Exactly 047.0%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Away Over 1.517.3%

Home Exactly 113.9%

Away Exactly 213.2%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Away Over 2.54.0%

Away 3+ Goals4.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)55.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away55.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.2%

Home to win by 3+44.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away34.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.8%

Home to win by 220.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 14.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.2%

Away to win by 21.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.1%

BTTS & Over 2.545.2%

Home & No BTTS44.9%

Home & BTTS38.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.528.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.1%

Home & Under 2.516.8%

Draw & BTTS8.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.7%

Away & Over 2.53.7%

Away & BTTS3.5%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.4%

HT Home Win64.2%

HT/FT Home/Home61.3%

HT Over 1.551.7%

HT Under 1.548.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw27.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.8%

HT Under 0.517.6%

HT Away Win8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Away/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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