Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh

Kick-off 16:00 · Tue, Oct 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90% confidence

Al Diriyah 90.4% Draw 6.5% Al Riyadh 3.1%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

90%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Al Diriyah: 7 points versus 5 across the last 4 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Al Diriyah

W W D L

Form 2-1-1 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

Al Riyadh

D L W D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:16 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al Diriyah win90.4%

Draw6.5%

Al Riyadh win3.1%

Over 1.5 goals97.0%

Over 2.5 goals89.6%

Over 3.5 goals76.8%

Both teams to score60.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.8%

Home or Away (12)

90.7%

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.5%

Home or Draw (1X)93.3%

Home or Away (12)90.7%

Home Win87.5%

Both Halves Over 0.585.9%

Goal in Both Halves85.9%

Draw or Away (X2)9.0%

Draw5.8%

Draw No Bet - Away3.5%

Away Win3.2%

Exactly 1 Goal2.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Over 1.5 Goals93.4%

Over 2.5 Goals86.4%

Over 3.5 Goals74.1%

4+ Goals74.1%

Under 5.5 Goals59.6%

Over 4.5 Goals57.7%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Total Goals Odd48.1%

Under 4.5 Goals42.3%

Over 5.5 Goals40.4%

2-4 Goals35.6%

3-4 Goals28.7%

Under 3.5 Goals25.9%

1-3 Goals21.9%

2-3 Goals19.3%

Under 2.5 Goals13.6%

Exactly 3 Goals12.3%

1-2 Goals9.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score58.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.3%

Home Clean Sheet38.1%

Home Win to Nil37.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.3%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Home Over 2.577.8%

Home 3+ Goals77.8%

Away Over 0.558.4%

Away Exactly 038.1%

Away Exactly 135.4%

Away Over 1.523.0%

Away Exactly 216.5%

Home Exactly 212.0%

Away Over 2.56.6%

Away 3+ Goals6.6%

Home Exactly 15.5%

Home Exactly 01.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)81.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away69.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.2%

Home to win by 3+61.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)52.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away52.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)43.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home43.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away35.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home27.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 215.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home14.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 110.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 12.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.6%

BTTS & Over 2.555.7%

Home & BTTS50.0%

Home & No BTTS37.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.1%

Home & Under 2.56.9%

Draw & BTTS5.3%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

Away & Over 2.52.5%

Away & BTTS2.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.8%

HT Home Win74.7%

HT/FT Home/Home72.7%

HT Over 1.568.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.1%

HT Both Teams Score29.4%

HT Draw18.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT Under 0.59.2%

HT Away Win6.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Away1.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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