Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al-Nassr vs Abha

Kick-off 19:00 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

93% confidence

Al-Nassr 92.6% Draw 5.4% Abha 2.0%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

93%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 8.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 13 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.6%

Exact-score model probability

Al-Nassr

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:6 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1

Abha

L L D L

Form 0-1-3 Goals 4:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al-Nassr win92.6%

Draw5.4%

Abha win2.0%

Over 1.5 goals96.9%

Over 2.5 goals89.3%

Over 3.5 goals76.4%

Both teams to score54.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.3%

HT Over 0.5

90.7%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.6%

Home or Draw (1X)93.7%

Home or Away (12)91.3%

Home Win89.1%

Both Halves Over 0.585.8%

Goal in Both Halves85.8%

Draw or Away (X2)6.9%

Draw4.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Draw No Bet - Away2.4%

Away Win2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals85.7%

Over 3.5 Goals73.3%

4+ Goals73.3%

Under 5.5 Goals60.6%

Over 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Total Goals Odd47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals43.2%

Over 5.5 Goals39.4%

2-4 Goals36.0%

3-4 Goals28.9%

Under 3.5 Goals26.7%

1-3 Goals22.2%

2-3 Goals19.5%

Under 2.5 Goals14.3%

Exactly 3 Goals12.4%

1-2 Goals9.7%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Exactly 2 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score52.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.2%

Home Clean Sheet43.6%

Home Win to Nil43.1%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.552.4%

Away Exactly 043.6%

Away Exactly 134.4%

Away Over 1.518.0%

Away Exactly 213.6%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 2.54.4%

Away 3+ Goals4.4%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home79.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)79.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)65.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away65.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home64.9%

Home to win by 3+64.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)48.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away48.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home47.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away31.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)30.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home30.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home16.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.6%

Home to win by 214.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 19.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away6.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 11.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.7%

BTTS & Over 2.550.0%

Home & BTTS46.0%

Home & No BTTS43.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.535.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Draw & BTTS4.2%

Draw & Over 2.52.4%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Over 2.51.7%

Away & BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.7%

HT Home Win77.3%

HT/FT Home/Home75.8%

HT Over 1.568.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.3%

HT Both Teams Score25.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT Draw17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT Under 0.59.3%

HT Away Win5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Away/Away1.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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