Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Oct 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Al-Nassr 55.6% Draw 23.2% Al Diriyah 21.2%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 15 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Al-Nassr

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

Al Diriyah

W W D L

Form 2-1-1 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al-Nassr win55.6%

Draw23.2%

Al Diriyah win21.2%

Over 1.5 goals86.1%

Over 2.5 goals65.3%

Over 3.5 goals43.4%

Both teams to score64.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.9%

Home Team to Score

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.1%

Home or Draw (1X)77.6%

Draw No Bet - Home71.7%

Both Halves Over 0.565.7%

Goal in Both Halves65.7%

Home Win56.8%

Draw or Away (X2)43.2%

Draw No Bet - Away28.3%

Away Win22.4%

Draw20.8%

Exactly 1 Goal11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.5%

Over 1.5 Goals84.9%

Under 4.5 Goals75.1%

Over 2.5 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals60.0%

Under 3.5 Goals56.6%

1-3 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.4%

4+ Goals43.4%

2-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.7%

1-2 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.8%

Away Team to Score71.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.1%

Home Clean Sheet28.4%

Home Win to Nil24.9%

Away Clean Sheet12.2%

Away Win to Nil8.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.8%

Away Over 0.571.6%

Home Over 1.562.1%

Away Over 1.535.9%

Away Exactly 135.7%

Home Over 2.535.1%

Home 3+ Goals35.1%

Away Exactly 028.4%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.6%

Away Exactly 222.5%

Away Over 2.513.4%

Away 3+ Goals13.4%

Home Exactly 012.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.3%

Home to win by 122.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.4%

Home to win by 3+17.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 217.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 113.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 26.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.9%

Away to win by 3+2.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.7%

Home & Over 2.541.8%

Home & BTTS31.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.5%

Home & No BTTS24.9%

Draw & BTTS17.4%

Away & Over 2.515.3%

Home & Under 2.514.9%

Away & BTTS13.7%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.6%

BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Away & No BTTS8.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.0%

HT Under 1.555.3%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.544.7%

HT Home Win43.3%

HT/FT Home/Home36.6%

HT Draw35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score26.5%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.0%

HT Away Win21.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT/FT Away/Away12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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