Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh

Kick-off 19:00 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Al-Nassr 61.0% Draw 23.3% Al-Fateh 15.7%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 10 points versus 5 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.40 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Al-Nassr

W D W L W

Form 3-1-1 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2.4 Conceded/game 1.4

Al-Fateh

D W L D

Form 1-2-1 Goals 4:3 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al-Nassr win61.0%

Draw23.3%

Al-Fateh win15.7%

Over 1.5 goals81.3%

Over 2.5 goals57.6%

Over 3.5 goals35.2%

Both teams to score54.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.9%

Under 5.5 Goals

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.0%

Home or Away (12)79.3%

Draw No Bet - Home78.5%

Home Win62.3%

Both Halves Over 0.559.8%

Goal in Both Halves59.8%

Draw or Away (X2)37.7%

Draw No Bet - Away21.5%

Draw20.7%

Away Win17.0%

Exactly 1 Goal15.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.0%

Under 5.5 Goals91.7%

Under 4.5 Goals81.6%

Over 1.5 Goals80.0%

Under 3.5 Goals64.8%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.8%

Over 2.5 Goals57.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.8%

Under 2.5 Goals42.4%

3-4 Goals39.2%

1-2 Goals37.4%

Over 3.5 Goals35.2%

4+ Goals35.2%

Exactly 2 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.0%

Over 4.5 Goals18.4%

Over 5.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals5.0%

Exactly 0 Goals5.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.9%

Away Team to Score61.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.4%

Home Clean Sheet38.3%

Home Win to Nil33.3%

Away Clean Sheet13.1%

Away Win to Nil8.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.9%

Away Over 0.561.7%

Home Over 1.560.3%

Away Exactly 038.3%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Over 2.533.3%

Home 3+ Goals33.3%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.6%

Away Over 1.524.9%

Away Exactly 217.6%

Home Exactly 013.1%

Away Over 2.57.3%

Away 3+ Goals7.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.9%

Home to win by 123.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.3%

Home to win by 3+19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 111.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.2%

Away to win by 24.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.9%

Home & Over 2.541.7%

Home & No BTTS33.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.6%

Home & BTTS29.0%

Home & Under 2.520.5%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Draw & Under 2.514.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.7%

Away & Over 2.59.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

Away & BTTS8.9%

Away & No BTTS8.1%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.0%

HT Under 1.561.0%

HT Home Win45.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT/FT Home/Home40.4%

HT Over 1.539.0%

HT Draw37.3%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.526.0%

Equal Goals Each Half24.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.7%

HT Away Win16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT/FT Away/Away9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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