Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89% confidence

Al-Nassr 88.6% Draw 7.8% Al Taawon 3.6%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

89%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 16 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Al-Nassr

W W W W D W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 19:6 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1

Al Taawon

D L D L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al-Nassr win88.6%

Draw7.8%

Al Taawon win3.6%

Over 1.5 goals95.7%

Over 2.5 goals86.0%

Over 3.5 goals70.9%

Both teams to score57.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.9%

HT Over 0.5

88.8%

Home Over 1.5

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.8%

Home or Draw (1X)94.1%

Home or Away (12)90.9%

Home Win87.1%

Both Halves Over 0.582.7%

Goal in Both Halves82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)10.8%

Draw7.0%

Draw No Bet - Away4.2%

Away Win3.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals93.4%

Over 2.5 Goals84.2%

Over 3.5 Goals69.4%

4+ Goals69.4%

Under 5.5 Goals66.1%

Over 4.5 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even49.0%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Under 4.5 Goals48.6%

2-4 Goals42.0%

Over 5.5 Goals33.9%

3-4 Goals32.8%

Under 3.5 Goals30.6%

1-3 Goals27.7%

2-3 Goals24.0%

Under 2.5 Goals15.8%

Exactly 3 Goals14.8%

1-2 Goals12.9%

Exactly 2 Goals9.1%

Under 1.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score57.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.0%

Home Clean Sheet40.8%

Home Win to Nil40.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.9%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.588.6%

Home Over 2.573.9%

Home 3+ Goals73.9%

Away Over 0.557.1%

Away Exactly 040.8%

Away Exactly 135.7%

Away Over 1.521.4%

Away Exactly 215.6%

Home Exactly 214.7%

Home Exactly 17.4%

Away Over 2.55.8%

Away 3+ Goals5.8%

Home Exactly 01.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away74.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home74.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away59.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)57.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home57.1%

Home to win by 3+57.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away40.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home38.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away23.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home23.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 217.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 112.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away10.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 12.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.577.9%

BTTS & Over 2.553.3%

Home & BTTS47.0%

Home & No BTTS40.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

Home & Under 2.59.2%

Draw & BTTS6.2%

Draw & Over 2.53.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

Away & Over 2.52.9%

Away & BTTS2.8%

BTTS & Under 2.52.7%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.8%

HT Home Win71.9%

HT/FT Home/Home69.7%

HT Over 1.564.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Under 1.535.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score27.1%

HT Draw20.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT Under 0.511.2%

HT Away Win7.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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