Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al-Nassr vs NEOM

Kick-off 19:00 · Tue, Oct 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Al-Nassr 68.3% Draw 18.1% NEOM 13.6%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 15 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.9%

Exact-score model probability

Al-Nassr

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

NEOM

W W L W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al-Nassr win68.3%

Draw18.1%

NEOM win13.6%

Over 1.5 goals90.6%

Over 2.5 goals74.0%

Over 3.5 goals53.7%

Both teams to score65.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.6%

Home or Draw (1X)

85.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

85.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.3%

Home or Away (12)83.5%

Draw No Bet - Home82.6%

Both Halves Over 0.572.5%

Goal in Both Halves72.5%

Home Win69.0%

Draw or Away (X2)30.8%

Draw No Bet - Away17.4%

Draw16.3%

Away Win14.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals80.9%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals53.6%

4+ Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals46.4%

1-3 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals35.9%

Over 4.5 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.9%

Away Team to Score69.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.6%

Home Clean Sheet30.7%

Home Win to Nil28.6%

Away Clean Sheet6.9%

Away Win to Nil4.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.9%

Home Over 1.574.6%

Away Over 0.569.1%

Home Over 2.549.9%

Home 3+ Goals49.9%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Over 1.532.9%

Away Exactly 030.7%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 221.3%

Home Exactly 118.4%

Away Over 2.511.6%

Away 3+ Goals11.6%

Home Exactly 06.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.8%

Home to win by 3+28.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 19.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.6%

Away to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.557.7%

Home & Over 2.555.8%

Home & BTTS40.4%

Home & No BTTS28.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS14.2%

Home & Under 2.513.2%

Away & Over 2.510.5%

Away & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & No BTTS4.8%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.4%

HT Home Win52.8%

HT Over 1.551.8%

HT Under 1.548.2%

HT/FT Home/Home47.4%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw30.8%

HT Both Teams Score28.8%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.6%

HT Away Win16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Away8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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