Saudi-Arabia · Pro League

Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr

Kick-off 17:00 · Fri, Aug 21

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

Al Riyadh 5.2% Draw 8.6% Al-Nassr 86.2%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-4 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Al-Nassr: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Al Riyadh

L W D W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Al-Nassr

W W D W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 15:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Al Riyadh win5.2%

Draw8.6%

Al-Nassr win86.2%

Over 1.5 goals97.2%

Over 2.5 goals89.8%

Over 3.5 goals77.2%

Both teams to score68.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

91.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away94.0%

Draw or Away (X2)91.9%

Home or Away (12)89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.586.1%

Goal in Both Halves86.1%

Away Win84.1%

Home or Draw (1X)13.2%

Draw7.8%

Draw No Bet - Home6.0%

Home Win5.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals87.4%

Over 3.5 Goals75.2%

4+ Goals75.2%

Over 4.5 Goals58.9%

Under 5.5 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even48.7%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

Over 5.5 Goals41.5%

Under 4.5 Goals41.1%

2-4 Goals35.4%

3-4 Goals28.5%

Under 3.5 Goals24.8%

1-3 Goals21.7%

2-3 Goals19.1%

Under 2.5 Goals12.6%

Exactly 3 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals9.5%

Exactly 2 Goals6.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.8%

Home Team to Score66.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.2%

Away Clean Sheet30.4%

Away Win to Nil29.9%

Home Clean Sheet1.5%

Home Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.8%

Away Over 1.589.3%

Away Over 2.575.9%

Away 3+ Goals75.9%

Home Over 0.566.9%

Home Exactly 135.4%

Home Over 1.531.5%

Home Exactly 030.4%

Home Exactly 220.6%

Away Exactly 213.5%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Away Exactly 16.5%

Away Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away91.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)86.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)84.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home75.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away71.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home60.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away54.5%

Away to win by 3+54.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home42.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)37.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away37.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home26.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away22.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.8%

Away to win by 216.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw15.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home13.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.9%

Away to win by 112.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away11.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw10.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw3.6%

Home to win by 13.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.3%

Home to win by 21.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.5%

Home to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.577.9%

BTTS & Over 2.563.5%

Away & BTTS54.2%

Away & No BTTS29.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Draw & BTTS7.3%

Away & Under 2.56.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.9%

Home & Over 2.54.5%

Home & BTTS4.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.8%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Home & No BTTS1.1%

Home & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.9%

HT Away Win70.0%

HT Over 1.569.1%

HT/FT Away/Away67.1%

2nd Half More Goals50.2%

HT Both Teams Score34.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.9%

HT Draw20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.3%

HT Home Win9.5%

HT Under 0.59.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Home3.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.8%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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