Spain · La Liga

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Kick-off 15:15 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Alaves 28.7% Draw 26.8% Atletico Madrid 44.5%

Over 2.5 - 47% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

75%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 8 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

Alaves

D L L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Atletico Madrid

W W W L L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Alaves 1wins ·2 draws ·Atletico Madrid 2wins

Alaves 0-1 Atletico MadridJan 18, 2026

Alaves 1-1 Atletico MadridAug 30, 2025

Alaves 0-0 Atletico MadridMay 3, 2025

Alaves 1-2 Atletico MadridNov 23, 2024

Alaves 2-0 Atletico MadridApr 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alaves win28.7%

Draw26.8%

Atletico Madrid win44.5%

Over 1.5 goals72.6%

Over 2.5 goals46.9%

Over 3.5 goals25.3%

Both teams to score74.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

85.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.0%

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Draw No Bet - Home81.0%

Both Halves Over 0.573.7%

Goal in Both Halves73.7%

Home Win67.4%

Draw or Away (X2)32.4%

Draw No Bet - Away19.0%

Draw16.6%

Away Win15.8%

Exactly 1 Goal7.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals90.3%

Under 5.5 Goals79.4%

Over 2.5 Goals75.3%

Under 4.5 Goals64.0%

Over 3.5 Goals55.5%

4+ Goals55.5%

2-4 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals44.5%

1-3 Goals42.4%

3-4 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals36.0%

2-3 Goals34.8%

Under 2.5 Goals24.7%

1-2 Goals22.6%

Over 5.5 Goals20.6%

Exactly 3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.0%

Under 1.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.0%

Away Team to Score71.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.2%

Home Clean Sheet28.2%

Home Win to Nil26.3%

Away Clean Sheet6.8%

Away Win to Nil4.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.0%

Home Over 1.574.7%

Away Over 0.571.6%

Home Over 2.550.1%

Home 3+ Goals50.1%

Away Over 1.536.0%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Away Exactly 028.2%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 222.5%

Home Exactly 118.3%

Away Over 2.513.5%

Away 3+ Goals13.5%

Home Exactly 06.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.8%

Home to win by 3+27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.7%

Away to win by 19.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.2%

Away to win by 24.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.2%

Home & Over 2.555.3%

Home & BTTS41.1%

Home & No BTTS26.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS14.7%

Home & Under 2.512.1%

Away & Over 2.511.9%

Away & BTTS10.9%

Draw & Under 2.58.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Away & No BTTS4.9%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.1%

HT Over 1.553.1%

HT Home Win51.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.546.9%

HT/FT Home/Home46.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw30.7%

HT Both Teams Score30.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT Away Win17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT Under 0.516.9%

HT/FT Away/Away8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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