Spain · La Liga

Alaves vs Malaga

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Oct 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Alaves 55.6% Draw 26.4% Malaga 18.0%

Over 2.5 - 42% BTTS - 38%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 13.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.3%

Exact-score model probability

Alaves

L L D L L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Malaga

L D D L D D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alaves win55.6%

Draw26.4%

Malaga win18.0%

Over 1.5 goals68.3%

Over 2.5 goals41.5%

Over 3.5 goals20.9%

Both teams to score38.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

Home Win

89.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.2%

Home or Draw (1X)96.6%

Home or Away (12)92.1%

Home Win89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.573.3%

Goal in Both Halves73.3%

Draw or Away (X2)9.6%

Exactly 1 Goal7.7%

Draw7.0%

Draw No Bet - Away2.8%

Away Win2.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals89.4%

Under 5.5 Goals80.5%

Over 2.5 Goals74.2%

Under 4.5 Goals65.2%

2-4 Goals54.6%

Over 3.5 Goals54.3%

4+ Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Under 3.5 Goals45.7%

1-3 Goals42.9%

3-4 Goals39.4%

2-3 Goals35.1%

Over 4.5 Goals34.8%

Under 2.5 Goals25.8%

1-2 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.9%

Over 5.5 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals15.2%

Under 1.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.6%

Home Clean Sheet60.4%

Home Win to Nil58.4%

Away Team to Score38.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.4%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil1.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.584.8%

Home Over 2.565.7%

Home 3+ Goals65.7%

Away Exactly 060.4%

Away Over 0.538.7%

Away Exactly 129.9%

Home Exactly 219.1%

Home Exactly 111.1%

Away Over 1.58.8%

Away Exactly 27.4%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Away Over 2.51.4%

Away 3+ Goals1.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home75.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away63.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)55.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home55.4%

Home to win by 3+55.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)43.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away43.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)35.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home35.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away24.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 219.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 114.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.1%

Home & No BTTS58.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.540.1%

BTTS & Over 2.534.1%

Home & BTTS31.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.6%

Home & Under 2.518.4%

Draw & Under 2.55.3%

Draw & BTTS5.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Draw & Over 2.51.7%

Away & Over 2.51.3%

Away & BTTS1.3%

Away & No BTTS1.3%

Away & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.9%

HT Home Win71.5%

HT/FT Home/Home69.9%

HT Over 1.552.7%

HT Under 1.547.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw23.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.1%

HT Under 0.517.1%

HT Both Teams Score15.7%

HT Away Win5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Away/Away1.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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