Spain · La Liga

Alaves vs Osasuna

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Alaves 45.1% Draw 27.8% Osasuna 27.1%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Alaves: 13 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Alaves 0 wins, 3 draws, Osasuna 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Alaves

W D W L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Osasuna

W W D L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Alaves 0wins ·3 draws ·Osasuna 2wins

Alaves 2-2 OsasunaApr 5, 2026

Alaves 0-3 OsasunaDec 20, 2025

Alaves 1-1 OsasunaMay 24, 2025

Alaves 2-2 OsasunaDec 8, 2024

Alaves 0-1 OsasunaMar 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alaves win45.1%

Draw27.8%

Osasuna win27.1%

Over 1.5 goals66.5%

Over 2.5 goals39.9%

Over 3.5 goals19.7%

Both teams to score63.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.1%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.0%

Home or Draw (1X)72.8%

Both Halves Over 0.565.4%

Goal in Both Halves65.4%

Draw No Bet - Home65.2%

Home Win50.9%

Draw or Away (X2)49.1%

Draw No Bet - Away34.8%

Away Win27.1%

Draw21.9%

Exactly 1 Goal11.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Under 5.5 Goals87.8%

Over 1.5 Goals84.6%

Under 4.5 Goals75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals64.8%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 3.5 Goals57.2%

1-3 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.8%

4+ Goals42.8%

2-3 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.2%

1-2 Goals31.6%

Over 4.5 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.8%

Under 1.5 Goals15.4%

Over 5.5 Goals12.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.9%

Away Team to Score74.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.7%

Home Clean Sheet25.1%

Home Win to Nil21.5%

Away Clean Sheet14.1%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.9%

Away Over 0.574.9%

Home Over 1.558.2%

Away Over 1.540.2%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Home Over 2.531.1%

Home 3+ Goals31.1%

Home Exactly 127.6%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 025.1%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Home Exactly 014.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 115.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.8%

Home to win by 3+13.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 27.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.2%

Away to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.7%

Home & Over 2.537.2%

Home & BTTS29.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.6%

Home & No BTTS21.5%

Away & Over 2.518.9%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Away & BTTS16.6%

Home & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.1%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.58.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.8%

HT Under 1.555.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Over 1.544.3%

HT Home Win39.4%

HT Draw36.2%

HT/FT Home/Home32.1%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.1%

HT Away Win24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half22.6%

HT Under 0.522.2%

HT/FT Away/Away15.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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