Spain · La Liga

Alaves vs Valencia

Kick-off 19:00 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Alaves 51.7% Draw 26.3% Valencia 22.1%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Alaves: 10 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Alaves

L W W D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Valencia

L L L L D W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:11 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Alaves 2wins ·2 draws ·Valencia 1wins

Alaves 2-3 ValenciaMar 8, 2026

Alaves 0-0 ValenciaOct 20, 2025

Alaves 1-0 ValenciaMay 14, 2025

Alaves 2-2 ValenciaDec 22, 2024

Alaves 1-0 ValenciaMay 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alaves win51.7%

Draw26.3%

Valencia win22.1%

Over 1.5 goals70.3%

Over 2.5 goals44.1%

Over 3.5 goals23.0%

Both teams to score80.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.7%

HT Over 0.5

85.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.6%

Home or Away (12)84.4%

Draw No Bet - Home82.2%

Both Halves Over 0.578.1%

Goal in Both Halves78.1%

Home Win69.4%

Draw or Away (X2)30.3%

Draw No Bet - Away17.8%

Draw15.2%

Away Win15.1%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals80.6%

Under 5.5 Goals73.1%

Over 3.5 Goals62.9%

4+ Goals62.9%

Under 4.5 Goals56.3%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.7%

Under 3.5 Goals37.1%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.4%

2-3 Goals29.8%

Over 5.5 Goals26.9%

Under 2.5 Goals19.4%

Exactly 3 Goals17.7%

1-2 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals12.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.5%

Away Team to Score74.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.2%

Home Clean Sheet25.0%

Home Win to Nil23.7%

Away Clean Sheet5.1%

Away Win to Nil3.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.5%

Home Over 1.579.3%

Away Over 0.574.7%

Home Over 2.556.7%

Home 3+ Goals56.7%

Away Over 1.540.1%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 025.0%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Home Exactly 222.6%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Home Exactly 115.2%

Home Exactly 05.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.3%

Home to win by 3+31.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.0%

Away to win by 19.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.1%

Away to win by 24.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.6%

Home & Over 2.559.9%

Home & BTTS45.7%

Home & No BTTS23.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.0%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.8%

Away & Over 2.512.1%

Away & BTTS11.2%

Home & Under 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & No BTTS3.8%

Away & Under 2.53.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.9%

HT Over 1.558.3%

HT Home Win54.2%

HT/FT Home/Home48.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.7%

HT Both Teams Score34.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT Away Win17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.514.1%

HT/FT Away/Away8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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