Spain · La Liga

Alaves vs Villarreal

Kick-off 20:30 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Alaves 32.4% Draw 23.9% Villarreal 43.6%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Alaves: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Alaves

D W L W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Villarreal

D D W L L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Alaves 1wins ·2 draws ·Villarreal 2wins

Alaves 1-1 VillarrealMar 13, 2026

Alaves 1-3 VillarrealJan 10, 2026

Alaves 1-0 VillarrealMar 8, 2025

Alaves 0-3 VillarrealNov 9, 2024

Alaves 1-1 VillarrealFeb 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alaves win32.4%

Draw23.9%

Villarreal win43.6%

Over 1.5 goals80.3%

Over 2.5 goals58.0%

Over 3.5 goals35.6%

Both teams to score86.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.6%

Home Team to Score

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.0%

Both Halves Over 0.577.2%

Goal in Both Halves77.2%

Home or Draw (1X)63.0%

Draw or Away (X2)56.8%

Draw No Bet - Home53.9%

Draw No Bet - Away46.1%

Home Win43.1%

Away Win36.9%

Draw19.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals79.9%

Under 5.5 Goals74.2%

Over 3.5 Goals61.7%

4+ Goals61.7%

Under 4.5 Goals57.6%

2-4 Goals50.2%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 4.5 Goals42.4%

Under 3.5 Goals38.3%

3-4 Goals37.5%

1-3 Goals36.8%

2-3 Goals30.8%

Over 5.5 Goals25.8%

Under 2.5 Goals20.1%

1-2 Goals18.7%

Exactly 3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 2 Goals12.7%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.1%

Away Team to Score87.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.4%

Home Clean Sheet12.8%

Home Win to Nil11.4%

Away Clean Sheet10.9%

Away Win to Nil9.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.1%

Away Over 0.587.1%

Home Over 1.565.0%

Away Over 1.560.8%

Home Over 2.538.2%

Home 3+ Goals38.2%

Away Over 2.533.7%

Away 3+ Goals33.7%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 126.3%

Home Exactly 124.1%

Away Exactly 012.8%

Home Exactly 010.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 212.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.3%

Home to win by 3+12.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 210.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.3%

Away to win by 3+9.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.3%

Home & Over 2.536.6%

Home & BTTS31.7%

Away & Over 2.531.1%

Away & BTTS27.4%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Over 2.512.2%

Home & No BTTS11.4%

Away & No BTTS9.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Under 2.57.7%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Away & Under 2.55.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.4%

HT Over 1.557.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.542.7%

HT Both Teams Score38.1%

HT Home Win36.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Away Win32.2%

HT Draw31.6%

HT/FT Home/Home27.1%

HT/FT Away/Away22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT Under 0.514.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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