Spain · Copa del Rey

Alcazar vs Malaga

Kick-off 21:00 · Tue, Oct 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Alcazar 72.5% Draw 19.9% Malaga 7.6%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 39%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 15.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.2%

Exact-score model probability

Alcazar

No recent results stored yet

Malaga

D L D D L D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alcazar win72.5%

Draw19.9%

Malaga win7.6%

Over 1.5 goals76.1%

Over 2.5 goals50.5%

Over 3.5 goals28.5%

Both teams to score39.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.3%

Draw No Bet - Home89.4%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Home Win73.5%

Both Halves Over 0.554.3%

Goal in Both Halves54.3%

Draw or Away (X2)26.5%

Exactly 1 Goal18.2%

Draw17.8%

Draw No Bet - Away10.6%

Away Win8.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.4%

Over 0.5 Goals93.2%

Under 4.5 Goals86.4%

Over 1.5 Goals75.0%

Under 3.5 Goals71.5%

1-3 Goals64.7%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals50.5%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals49.5%

2-3 Goals46.6%

1-2 Goals42.7%

3-4 Goals36.9%

Over 3.5 Goals28.5%

4+ Goals28.5%

Under 1.5 Goals25.0%

Exactly 2 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals13.6%

Under 0.5 Goals6.8%

Exactly 0 Goals6.7%

Over 5.5 Goals5.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)61.7%

Home Clean Sheet56.4%

Home Win to Nil49.7%

Away Team to Score43.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)38.3%

Away Clean Sheet11.9%

Away Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.0%

Home Over 1.562.6%

Away Exactly 056.4%

Away Over 0.543.5%

Home Over 2.535.7%

Home 3+ Goals35.7%

Away Exactly 132.3%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.4%

Home Exactly 011.9%

Away Over 1.511.3%

Away Exactly 29.2%

Away Over 2.52.0%

Away 3+ Goals2.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.1%

Home to win by 3+26.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.0%

Home to win by 125.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.4%

Home to win by 222.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.7%

Away to win by 16.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS49.7%

Home & Over 2.544.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.541.2%

BTTS & Over 2.530.1%

Home & Under 2.529.5%

Home & BTTS23.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

Draw & Under 2.514.9%

Draw & BTTS11.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Away & No BTTS5.2%

Away & Under 2.55.0%

Away & Over 2.53.7%

Away & BTTS3.5%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.3%

HT Under 1.565.8%

HT Home Win52.7%

HT/FT Home/Home49.3%

2nd Half More Goals43.4%

HT Draw37.5%

HT Over 1.534.2%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.529.7%

Equal Goals Each Half25.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.8%

HT Both Teams Score14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.9%

HT Away Win9.8%

HT/FT Away/Away4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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