Portugal · Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Casa Pia

Kick-off 19:00 · Sat, Nov 7

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Alverca 52.7% Draw 25.0% Casa Pia 22.3%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 48%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Alverca: 9 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Alverca 2 wins, 0 draws, Casa Pia 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.2%

Exact-score model probability

Alverca

L L W W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Casa Pia

L W L W L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 2

Alverca 2wins ·0 draws ·Casa Pia 0wins

Alverca 3-1 Casa PiaApr 12, 2026

Alverca 2-0 Casa PiaNov 29, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alverca win52.7%

Draw25.0%

Casa Pia win22.3%

Over 1.5 goals66.3%

Over 2.5 goals40.6%

Over 3.5 goals20.2%

Both teams to score48.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.0%

Draw No Bet - Home83.7%

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Home Win66.6%

Both Halves Over 0.554.5%

Goal in Both Halves54.5%

Draw or Away (X2)33.4%

Draw20.5%

Exactly 1 Goal18.1%

Draw No Bet - Away16.3%

Away Win12.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.3%

Over 0.5 Goals93.3%

Under 4.5 Goals86.3%

Over 1.5 Goals75.2%

Under 3.5 Goals71.4%

1-3 Goals64.6%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals49.3%

2-3 Goals46.5%

1-2 Goals42.6%

3-4 Goals37.0%

Over 3.5 Goals28.6%

4+ Goals28.6%

Under 1.5 Goals24.8%

Exactly 2 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals13.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.7%

Exactly 0 Goals6.7%

Over 5.5 Goals5.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.4%

Away Team to Score51.8%

Home Clean Sheet48.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.6%

Home Win to Nil41.4%

Away Clean Sheet13.9%

Away Win to Nil7.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.1%

Home Over 1.558.6%

Away Over 0.551.8%

Away Exactly 048.1%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Home Over 2.531.6%

Home 3+ Goals31.6%

Home Exactly 127.4%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Over 1.516.7%

Home Exactly 013.9%

Away Exactly 212.9%

Away Over 2.53.8%

Away 3+ Goals3.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)66.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)33.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away33.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.3%

Home to win by 125.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.7%

Home to win by 3+20.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 220.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.4%

Away to win by 19.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 22.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS41.4%

Home & Over 2.540.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.539.6%

BTTS & Over 2.535.0%

Home & Under 2.526.2%

Home & BTTS25.1%

Draw & Under 2.516.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.7%

Draw & BTTS13.8%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Away & No BTTS7.2%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Over 2.56.3%

Away & BTTS5.7%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.4%

HT Under 1.565.7%

HT Home Win47.9%

2nd Half More Goals43.4%

HT/FT Home/Home43.4%

HT Draw38.9%

HT Over 1.534.3%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.529.6%

Equal Goals Each Half25.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.5%

HT Both Teams Score16.5%

HT Away Win13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.1%

HT/FT Away/Away6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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