Portugal · Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Estrela

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Alverca 44.6% Draw 26.9% Estrela 28.6%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Alverca: 4 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Alverca

L L D L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:7 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Estrela

D D D L L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Alverca 0wins ·2 draws ·Estrela 0wins

Alverca 1-1 EstrelaJan 31, 2026

Alverca 2-2 EstrelaAug 25, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alverca win44.6%

Draw26.9%

Estrela win28.6%

Over 1.5 goals66.9%

Over 2.5 goals40.8%

Over 3.5 goals20.4%

Both teams to score80.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.5%

Both Halves Over 0.577.1%

Goal in Both Halves77.1%

Home or Draw (1X)75.7%

Draw No Bet - Home70.3%

Home Win57.3%

Draw or Away (X2)42.5%

Draw No Bet - Away29.7%

Away Win24.2%

Draw18.3%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.4%

Over 2.5 Goals79.7%

Under 5.5 Goals74.4%

Over 3.5 Goals61.5%

4+ Goals61.5%

Under 4.5 Goals57.9%

2-4 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals42.1%

Under 3.5 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

1-3 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals31.0%

Over 5.5 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals20.3%

1-2 Goals18.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals7.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

Away Team to Score81.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.9%

Home Clean Sheet18.7%

Home Win to Nil17.3%

Away Clean Sheet7.5%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Away Over 0.581.2%

Home Over 1.572.9%

Away Over 1.549.8%

Home Over 2.547.7%

Home 3+ Goals47.7%

Away Exactly 131.3%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Over 2.523.6%

Away 3+ Goals23.6%

Home Exactly 119.5%

Away Exactly 018.7%

Home Exactly 07.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.0%

Home to win by 3+21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 119.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.8%

Away to win by 112.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 26.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.0%

Home & Over 2.549.0%

Home & BTTS40.1%

Away & Over 2.519.8%

Away & BTTS18.1%

Home & No BTTS17.3%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Home & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & Under 2.57.5%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Over 1.557.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Home Win45.5%

HT Under 1.542.8%

HT/FT Home/Home38.0%

HT Both Teams Score36.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.7%

HT Away Win23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT/FT Away/Away14.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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