Portugal · Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Santa Clara

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Alverca 34.4% Draw 29.6% Santa Clara 36.0%

Over 2.5 - 32% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santa Clara: 2 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Alverca 0 wins, 1 draws, Santa Clara 1 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Alverca

L D L L D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Santa Clara

W W D L W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 2

Alverca 0wins ·1 draws ·Santa Clara 1wins

Alverca 1-1 Santa ClaraFeb 21, 2026

Alverca 1-2 Santa ClaraSep 20, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Alverca win34.4%

Draw29.6%

Santa Clara win36.0%

Over 1.5 goals58.3%

Over 2.5 goals31.9%

Over 3.5 goals14.0%

Both teams to score70.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

87.5%

Under 5.5 Goals

86.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.3%

Home or Draw (1X)72.1%

Both Halves Over 0.567.0%

Goal in Both Halves67.0%

Draw No Bet - Home64.4%

Home Win50.4%

Draw or Away (X2)49.6%

Draw No Bet - Away35.6%

Away Win27.9%

Draw21.6%

Exactly 1 Goal11.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Under 5.5 Goals86.5%

Over 1.5 Goals85.8%

Under 4.5 Goals73.5%

Over 2.5 Goals66.9%

2-4 Goals59.4%

Under 3.5 Goals54.8%

1-3 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.2%

4+ Goals45.2%

2-3 Goals40.6%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.1%

1-2 Goals29.9%

Over 4.5 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.9%

Under 1.5 Goals14.2%

Over 5.5 Goals13.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.4%

Away Team to Score76.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.9%

Home Clean Sheet23.5%

Home Win to Nil20.3%

Away Clean Sheet13.5%

Away Win to Nil10.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.4%

Away Over 0.576.5%

Home Over 1.559.4%

Away Over 1.542.5%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Home Over 2.532.3%

Home 3+ Goals32.3%

Home Exactly 127.1%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 023.5%

Away Over 2.517.8%

Away 3+ Goals17.8%

Home Exactly 013.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.3%

Home to win by 121.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 115.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.2%

Home to win by 215.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.9%

Home to win by 3+13.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.0%

Away to win by 28.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.9%

Home & Over 2.537.7%

Home & BTTS30.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.8%

Home & No BTTS20.3%

Away & Over 2.520.0%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Home & Under 2.512.7%

Draw & Under 2.512.4%

Away & No BTTS10.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.8%

HT Under 1.554.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.0%

HT Over 1.545.9%

HT Home Win39.4%

HT Draw35.6%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT/FT Home/Home31.8%

HT Both Teams Score28.4%

HT Away Win25.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.1%

HT Under 0.521.2%

HT/FT Away/Away16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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