Turkey · Süper Lig

Amed vs Erzurumspor FK

Kick-off 19:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Amed 40.0% Draw 30.0% Erzurumspor FK 30.0%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

High xG values

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate high

75%

Home or Draw (1X)

Amed home advantage

70%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Amed and Erzurumspor FK have no historical data, but expected goals suggest a closely contested match. Amed's home advantage could be significant, but Erzurumspor FK's ability to score is also notable. With both teams likely to score, the match could see multiple goals. The lack of head-to-head data makes it difficult to predict a clear winner. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high expected goals and both teams' scoring potential.

💡

Top Tip

Over 1

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.5%, based on the goal model.

High xG values

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.5%

Exact-score model probability

Amed

No recent results stored yet

Erzurumspor FK

No recent results stored yet

📈 Probability Breakdown

Amed win40.0%

Draw30.0%

Erzurumspor FK win30.0%

Over 1.5 goals74.9%

Over 2.5 goals48.1%

Over 3.5 goals26.4%

Both teams to score54.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

87.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

86.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

86.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)73.7%

Home or Draw (1X)67.4%

Draw or Away (X2)58.9%

Draw No Bet - Home55.8%

Both Halves Over 0.552.5%

Goal in Both Halves52.5%

Draw No Bet - Away44.2%

Home Win41.1%

Away Win32.6%

Draw26.2%

Exactly 1 Goal19.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.1%

Over 0.5 Goals92.6%

Under 4.5 Goals87.7%

Under 3.5 Goals73.6%

Over 1.5 Goals73.3%

1-3 Goals66.1%

2-4 Goals61.0%

Under 2.5 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals48.2%

2-3 Goals46.9%

1-2 Goals44.4%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 1.5 Goals26.7%

Over 3.5 Goals26.4%

4+ Goals26.4%

Exactly 2 Goals25.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals12.3%

Under 0.5 Goals7.4%

Exactly 0 Goals7.4%

Over 5.5 Goals4.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score75.1%

Away Team to Score70.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.3%

Home Clean Sheet29.8%

Away Clean Sheet24.9%

Home Win to Nil22.4%

Away Win to Nil17.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.575.1%

Away Over 0.570.2%

Home Over 1.540.5%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Home Exactly 134.6%

Away Over 1.534.1%

Away Exactly 029.8%

Home Exactly 024.9%

Home Exactly 224.1%

Away Exactly 221.8%

Home Over 2.516.5%

Home 3+ Goals16.5%

Away Over 2.512.3%

Away 3+ Goals12.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)58.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away58.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 121.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.0%

Away to win by 119.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 29.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.1%

Home to win by 3+7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.539.3%

Home & Over 2.523.6%

Home & No BTTS22.4%

Draw & Under 2.519.9%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Home & BTTS18.7%

Away & Over 2.518.2%

Home & Under 2.517.5%

Away & No BTTS17.4%

Away & BTTS15.2%

Away & Under 2.514.4%

BTTS & Under 2.512.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.0%

HT Under 1.567.3%

2nd Half More Goals43.0%

HT Draw42.5%

HT Over 1.532.7%

HT Home Win31.4%

HT Under 0.531.0%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Away Win26.1%

Equal Goals Each Half26.1%

HT/FT Home/Home24.3%

HT Both Teams Score19.5%

HT/FT Away/Away18.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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