Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Anderlecht vs Genk

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Anderlecht 42.2% Draw 27.2% Genk 30.6%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Anderlecht: 15 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.4%

Exact-score model probability

Anderlecht

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Genk

W L D W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Anderlecht 0wins ·1 draws ·Genk 4wins

Anderlecht 0-2 GenkFeb 8, 2026

Anderlecht 1-1 GenkSep 14, 2025

Anderlecht 1-2 GenkMay 25, 2025

Anderlecht 1-2 GenkApr 6, 2025

Anderlecht 0-2 GenkDec 22, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Anderlecht win42.2%

Draw27.2%

Genk win30.6%

Over 1.5 goals78.2%

Over 2.5 goals61.4%

Over 3.5 goals31.1%

Both teams to score53.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.8%

Home or Draw (1X)71.9%

Draw No Bet - Home62.9%

Both Halves Over 0.557.7%

Goal in Both Halves57.7%

Draw or Away (X2)52.4%

Home Win47.6%

Draw No Bet - Away37.1%

Away Win28.1%

Draw24.2%

Exactly 1 Goal16.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.4%

Under 5.5 Goals92.8%

Under 4.5 Goals83.6%

Over 1.5 Goals78.2%

Under 3.5 Goals67.5%

1-3 Goals61.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 2.5 Goals45.1%

1-2 Goals39.5%

3-4 Goals38.4%

Over 3.5 Goals32.5%

4+ Goals32.5%

Exactly 2 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals16.4%

Over 5.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals5.6%

Exactly 0 Goals5.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.9%

Away Team to Score70.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.0%

Home Clean Sheet29.6%

Home Win to Nil23.9%

Away Clean Sheet19.1%

Away Win to Nil13.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.9%

Away Over 0.570.4%

Home Over 1.549.4%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.534.4%

Home Exactly 131.6%

Away Exactly 029.6%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Over 2.523.2%

Home 3+ Goals23.2%

Away Exactly 222.0%

Home Exactly 019.1%

Away Over 2.512.5%

Away 3+ Goals12.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.6%

Home to win by 3+10.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 27.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.7%

Away to win by 3+3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.8%

Home & Over 2.530.6%

Home & No BTTS23.9%

Home & BTTS23.7%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

Home & Under 2.517.1%

Away & Over 2.517.1%

Draw & Under 2.517.0%

Away & BTTS14.7%

Away & No BTTS13.4%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

Away & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.6%

HT Under 1.562.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.1%

HT Draw39.8%

HT Over 1.537.1%

HT Home Win36.2%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT/FT Home/Home29.2%

HT Under 0.527.4%

Equal Goals Each Half24.6%

HT Away Win24.0%

HT Both Teams Score22.2%

HT/FT Away/Away16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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