UEFA Europa League

Anderlecht vs Lyon

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Anderlecht 74.2% Draw 14.9% Lyon 10.9%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Anderlecht: 15 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Anderlecht

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Lyon

D W D L W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Anderlecht win74.2%

Draw14.9%

Lyon win10.9%

Over 1.5 goals93.7%

Over 2.5 goals80.8%

Over 3.5 goals63.0%

Both teams to score68.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.0%

Draw No Bet - Home86.6%

Home or Away (12)86.0%

Both Halves Over 0.578.0%

Goal in Both Halves78.0%

Home Win74.5%

Draw or Away (X2)25.0%

Draw13.5%

Draw No Bet - Away13.4%

Away Win11.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.4%

Under 5.5 Goals73.3%

Over 3.5 Goals62.7%

4+ Goals62.7%

Under 4.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-4 Goals49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.5%

Under 3.5 Goals37.3%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.5%

2-3 Goals29.9%

Over 5.5 Goals26.7%

Under 2.5 Goals19.6%

1-2 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals12.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.1%

Away Team to Score70.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.8%

Home Clean Sheet29.3%

Home Win to Nil28.0%

Away Clean Sheet4.4%

Away Win to Nil3.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 1.581.4%

Away Over 0.570.2%

Home Over 2.560.0%

Home 3+ Goals60.0%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.534.4%

Away Exactly 029.3%

Away Exactly 221.9%

Home Exactly 221.4%

Home Exactly 113.7%

Away Over 2.512.5%

Away 3+ Goals12.5%

Home Exactly 04.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.6%

Home to win by 3+36.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 219.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 118.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 23.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.564.2%

BTTS & Over 2.562.2%

Home & BTTS46.5%

Home & No BTTS28.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & BTTS12.2%

Home & Under 2.510.3%

Away & Over 2.59.0%

Away & BTTS8.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Away & No BTTS3.1%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.9%

HT Over 1.558.3%

HT Home Win58.1%

HT/FT Home/Home53.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score32.0%

HT Draw27.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT Away Win14.5%

HT Under 0.514.1%

HT/FT Away/Away6.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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