UEFA Europa League

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Ararat-Armenia 60.6% Draw 20.1% AZ Alkmaar 19.3%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

Ararat-Armenia

W D L W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

AZ Alkmaar

D L W D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ararat-Armenia win60.6%

Draw20.1%

AZ Alkmaar win19.3%

Over 1.5 goals91.2%

Over 2.5 goals75.0%

Over 3.5 goals55.1%

Both teams to score70.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.8%

Home Over 0.5

91.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.6%

Home or Draw (1X)79.7%

Draw No Bet - Home75.2%

Both Halves Over 0.573.3%

Goal in Both Halves73.3%

Home Win61.4%

Draw or Away (X2)38.5%

Draw No Bet - Away24.8%

Away Win20.2%

Draw18.3%

Exactly 1 Goal7.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals90.1%

Under 5.5 Goals79.8%

Over 2.5 Goals74.9%

Under 4.5 Goals64.5%

Over 3.5 Goals55.0%

4+ Goals55.0%

2-4 Goals54.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals45.0%

1-3 Goals42.9%

3-4 Goals39.4%

Over 4.5 Goals35.5%

2-3 Goals35.1%

Under 2.5 Goals25.1%

1-2 Goals23.0%

Over 5.5 Goals20.2%

Exactly 3 Goals19.9%

Exactly 2 Goals15.2%

Under 1.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.8%

Away Team to Score75.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.6%

Home Clean Sheet24.4%

Home Win to Nil22.4%

Away Clean Sheet8.1%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.8%

Away Over 0.575.5%

Home Over 1.571.4%

Home Over 2.545.8%

Home 3+ Goals45.8%

Away Over 1.541.1%

Away Exactly 134.4%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 024.4%

Away Exactly 224.2%

Home Exactly 120.4%

Away Over 2.516.9%

Away 3+ Goals16.9%

Home Exactly 08.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.8%

Home to win by 3+22.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.8%

Home to win by 120.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.7%

Away to win by 111.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 25.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 3+2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.4%

Home & Over 2.550.2%

Home & BTTS39.0%

Home & No BTTS22.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.0%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Away & Over 2.515.5%

Away & BTTS14.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.6%

Home & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.3%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

Away & Under 2.54.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.9%

HT Over 1.552.7%

HT Home Win47.6%

HT Under 1.547.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

HT/FT Home/Home40.9%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw31.8%

HT Both Teams Score31.8%

HT Away Win20.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT Under 0.517.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.3%

HT/FT Away/Away11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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